US Dollar Price Forecast: Steadies Ahead of NFP and PMI Data, GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

During Asian trading on Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 98.20 after a prior session decline. Investors remain focused on upcoming labor market data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.

Labor Data and PMI in Focus

Traders await fresh indicators including ADP Employment Change, weekly Jobless Claims, and the ISM Services PMI. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show a modest 75,000 job gain in August, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%.

JOLTS Weakness Fuels Rate Cut Bets

Dollar sentiment softened after July JOLTS Job Openings dropped to 7.18 million, the lowest since September 2024 and below the forecast of 7.4 million.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, up from 92% the previous day.

Fed Officials Warn on Inflation

Despite growing bets on policy easing, Fed officials remain cautious. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted tariffs are lifting consumer prices, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation is still the primary concern, even as the labor market cools. Nominee Stephen Miran emphasized preserving Fed independence.

Market Awaits NFP for Direction

For now, the DXY remains stable near 98.20, with traders weighing inflation concerns against expectations for a September cut.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating near 98.22, holding above its short-term trendline support from last week’s low. The 50-EMA at 98.18 and the 200-EMA at 98.12 are converging, signaling a key area of balance between buyers and sellers. The RSI sits at 51, reflecting neutral momentum after easing from overbought territory. Immediate resistance is at 98.37, with a breakout exposing 98.59.

On the downside, 98.05 is first support, followed by 97.71 if pressure builds. The index remains rangebound, and a decisive move above 98.37 or below 98.05 could set the next direction.

Until then, price action favors short-term consolidation with traders watching U.S. data for momentum triggers.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading near $1.3452, recovering from support at $1.3416 after last week’s drop. The pair is moving inside a contracting triangle, with resistance at $1.3543 and support at $1.3341. The 50-EMA ($1.3450) and 200-EMA ($1.3466) are tightly aligned, showing indecision and keeping the pair rangebound.

The RSI at 55 points to modest bullish momentum after bouncing from oversold territory. A break above $1.3489 could trigger further upside toward $1.3543, while failure to hold $1.3416 risks a slide to $1.3376 or $1.3341.

Overall, GBP/USD remains trapped in consolidation, with traders watching for a breakout from the triangle pattern to define the next major move.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is consolidating near $1.1654, trading between short-term support at $1.1644 and resistance at $1.1682. The 50-EMA and 200-EMA are nearly aligned, showing indecision and a balanced market. The RSI sits close to 50, signaling neutral momentum after recent swings.

A clear breakout above $1.1682 could open the way toward $1.1708 and $1.1735, while a drop below $1.1644 risks further downside toward $1.1611. The rising trendline from last week still supports the broader structure, keeping a bullish bias intact unless price breaks below $1.1611.

Until a decisive move emerges, traders should expect range-bound price action with potential volatility around upcoming U.S. data releases.