USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bulls Stay Intact on 1-Week Chart

Ahead of the day, Fed Chair Powell Speech and Consumer Confidence Index are must-watch events. On a broader technical view, the pair appeared to maintain a healthy uptrend.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Trader Computers Desk

The slump rally that got triggered on June 21 from 1.3229 levels continued to prevail in the pair’s movements even today. The Loonie pair opened up near  1.3182 levels today, moving around the lower vicinity of the chart. The declining swing highs and swing lows for three days in a row hinted the presence of a substantial downtrend. During the Asian session, the pair attempted to make a strong jump but got capped by 1.3196 resistance mark.

In the meanwhile, the USD Index was trading 0.10% lower since the last closing in the early hours. The Greenback was testing the sound 95.89 support levels last touched on March 21 in the Asian session.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 25 June 2019

However, any movement below that mark would shift the next target towards 95.76 support levels. Fed would likely come up with rate cuts by July end. Powell will talk over the economic outlook today in New York.

Oil prices appeared to remain steady as market attention turns towards the US-Sino trade talk in G20 meeting next week. Trump had targeted the Iranian Supreme Leader and other top officials with sanctions last day.

trump sanctions

The President also mentioned that other nations should look after their oil shipping instead of making the US as the “Sentinel”. OPEC+ nations might decide to extend the supply cuts when they meet on July 1-2.

Significant Economic Events

The US economic docket contains some good number of events, lined up to tweak the pair’s future actions.  The April Housing data stays under the focus light. S&P/Case-Shiller YoY April Home Price Indices will come out at around 13:00 GMT. The market expects a 0.1% decrease, reporting near 2.6% this time. Consumer Confidence Index scheduled at 14:00 GMT is also a must-watch event. Street analysts stay positive over April MoM Housing Price Index and May MoM New Home Sales data release.

Ahead of the day, Fed Chair Powell would address on the monetary policy. Last day, Trump had tweeted calling Fed as a “Stubborn Child”. Therefore, the market can expect some interesting insights out of upcoming Powell’s speech in New York.

There is also one low significant Canadian April MoM Wholesale Sales data about to report at 12:30 GMT.

At around 20:30 GMT, US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock reports computed since June 21 might influence the Oil prices. The API had reported -0.812 million previous time.

Technical Analysis

1-Hour Chart

USDCAD 60 Min 25 June 2019

The Loonie pair had started falling on June 18 from 1.3432 levels. On June 20, the tumble rally had found a stoppage after rebounding from 1.3152 levels. From there, the pair has beautifully managed to stay sustained within 1.3152/1.3229 range levels. As the chart shows some resemblance to Bear flag pattern, any movement attempting to breach the 1.3229 resistance mark might signal sell alerts. Though the long-term 200-days SMA was trading overhead the pair, near-term 50 days and 100-days SMA was moving approaching the pair. Hence, the possibility of a small lift in the short term is noteworthy.

1-Week Chart

USDCAD 1 Week 25 June 2019

On a broader view, the pair appeared to maintain a healthy uptrend. The Loonie pair was traveling above all the major SMA, bolstering upward drift hopes. Anyhow, the bears seemed to stay alive as the 50-days SMA overshadowed the pair’s movements.

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