USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – The Loonie Upholds 1.3500 Levels Ahead of Upbeat US Durable Goods Data

The USD/CAD gives a follow-through to the bull run commenced on April 23. The Crude Oil remains sustained near its top levels. The Street Analysts take a bearish stance on the US Jobless Claims figures.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Canadian Money

The Loonie pair continues to stay intact near its monthly top 1.3500 levels. The elevation discounts to the upliftment of the Green Money and the near-term Crude price fall.

The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures weighed lower recently over increasing US crude stockpiles reports. Though the pair suffered a slight pullback, the pair remained in the upper vicinity near $66 per barrel.

The primary supporting points for the crude to stay high are the tightening of Iran sanctions and rising OPEC-led supply cuts. Days back, the US administration had utterly rejected the US sanction waivers on Iranian Oil. This action in combination with the OPEC allies puts enormous upward pressure on the oil.

On the Canadian front, last day, the BoC decided to avoid an interest rate hike for the time being. The pain in the CAD economy got deepened with this monetary announcement. However, such a negative sentiment for the Canadian Dollars will act as a catalyst for the  USD/CAD upsurge.

USD/CAD Influential Events

There are no CAD significant events lined up for the day. However, there are some US-based economic events which have the potential to move the loonie pair.

US events

12:30 GMT

The US March Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding the Aircrafts (Highly Volatile)

This time, the market expects the figures to report a positive change of 0.1 percent before the previous negative 0.1 percent.

The US March Durable Goods Orders

  • Including all Durable Goods: The consensus believes the numbers to grow 2.4 percent to the previous negative 1.6 percent
  • Excluding Defence: The market takes a firm bullish call on these figures, expecting a straightaway rise of 2.0 percent this time
  • Excluding Transportation: The street analysts expect a positive 0.2 percent for March, to the prior negative 0.1 percent

The US Jobless Claims Data

  • Continuing Jobless Claims: The market look for a 46K rise in the numbers computed since April 12. This outcome may lower the strength of the greenback, hence the loonie pair
  • Initial Jobless Claims: The consensus remains bearish on these numbers calculated on data since April 19. They expect an 8K increase in the claims this time

The EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

The numbers get computed on data since April 19. The previous figures had reported a 92 billion figure.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 45 Min 25 April 2019

The USD/CAD pair stay well above the 200-days significant SMA, developing a stable uptrend outlook. Notably, the pair had attempted to go beyond the 50% Fib Retracement Level, rebounding from 61.8% Fib Level. After multiple trails, the pair managed to breach the robust Fib level, showing bull ride signs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) revealed some reduction in the last day’s over-buying scenario. Today, the RSI was ranging just above 50 levels. The pair were crossing the EMA of the Bollinger Bands (BB) alluding for a near-term bear stance.

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