USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – USD/CAD Struggles To Breach 1.328 Handle over Wobbly US Greenback

The USD/CAD pair came under a modest pressure in the early NA session and erased a small part of its daily gains as rising crude oil prices helped the commodity-sensitive loonie gather strength. However, the pair reversed its course and advanced to a fresh 3-week high at 1.3280 as the barrel of WTI eased below the $70 mark. At the moment, the pair is trading at 1.3248, down 0.19% on the day as dollar faced pressure on broader market over Trump’s comment on Fed’s interest rate decisions and Dollar’s strength. USD/CAD comes into focus today, with a host of Canadian economic data due out this afternoon. Trump’s comments seem to have had little effect upon this pair with price action remaining stable above 1.3240 handle. The pair continued with its struggled to breakthrough 1.3280 resistance zone, marking 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level of the 1.3064-1.3234 up-move and subsequent retracement. Meanwhile, short-term technical indicators still hold in positive territory and hence, dip-buying interest might continue to keep a floor on any meaningful retracement from three-week tops.

USDCAD Steady

However, it would be prudent to wait for a follow-through momentum beyond 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level before positioning for any further up-move, even beyond the 1.3300 handle. Treasuries saw a muted reaction to Trump, with a 2-3 bps rally across the curve while Canadian rates underperformed in the front-end. The USD proved more sensitive to the President’s comments, with JPY (+0.4%) rallying 0.7% immediately after the headlines before unwinding some of the move. USD/CAD (+0.7%) ground higher over the session, leaving the pair at a three-week high while Cable (-0.4%) traded below 1.30 for the first time since 2017 before recovering. Saudi Arabia’s OPEC governor yesterday said that they would reduce their output by 100K barrels per day in August and allowed crude oil prices to record decisive gains. However, news of oil workers ending their strike after reaching a deal with the union in Norway re-escalated concerns over excess oil supply and capped the WTI’s upside. As of writing, the barrel of WTI was 0.45% on the day $69.73 per barrel.

The US Dollar Index, which refreshed its highest level in 12-months at 95.45, struggled to push higher amid falling T-bond yields but remains on track to close the day above the critical 95 mark. At the moment, the index is up 0.45% on the day at 95.27. Meanwhile, the data released by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for Canada on Thursday showed that the private employment decreased by 10.521K in June following May’s 2.9K growth and put some extra weight on the Loonie. Today’s investor focus will be on the inflation and retail sales figures from Canada. All in all, core inflation has a probability of disappointing while headline sales may surprise to the upside. If these two things happen, the reaction may be choppy, yet limited. The figures can offset each other. For a more meaningful outcome for the USD/CAD expected support and resistance are at 1.3165, 1.3100, 1.3060 and 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3385 respectively.