USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Eases Ahead of CPI and Retail Sales

The dollar eased and continues to trade in a tight range against the loonie. The Canadian dollar gained traction following a stronger than expected payroll report on Friday but failed to continue to trend higher.   The dollar was mixed versus most other major currencies as traders await the Fed decision and a deluge of data that is scheduled during the balance of the week. The highlights include CPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production.

Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD eased but remained above support near the 10-day moving average at 1.2618. Additional support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1.2576. Short-term momentum has turned positive. The fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal in oversold territory. Medium-term negative momentum has decelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. This situation occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory after recently generating a crossover buy signal. This points to higher prices for the USD/CAD.