USD, EUR, GBP Price Forecast: ECB Speech Impact, DXY Targets Pivot at 103.82

Arslan Ali
Published: Feb 26, 2024, 07:43 UTC

Key Points:

  • ECB President Lagarde's upcoming speech may significantly influence the EUR/USD pair's future direction.
  • GBP/USD poised for movement with MPC Member speeches and CBI Realized Sales data on the horizon.
  • Dollar Index shows slight bullish bias; key indicators suggest potential gains if above pivot point 103.824.
USD, EUR, GBP Price Forecast: ECB Speech Impact, DXY Targets Pivot at 103.82

In this article:

The Dollar Index today signals a slight bearish shift, marking a -0.08% decrease at $103.877. On Friday, the German Final GDP quarter-on-quarter remained steady at -0.3%, aligning with predictions.

The German ifo Business Climate Index slightly outperformed expectations, reporting at 85.5, while the Belgian NBB Business Climate fell short, indicating a dip to -12.8. The ECOFIN Meetings also drew attention, underscoring ongoing economic discussions within the EU.

In the UK, the focus was on consumer confidence, with the GfK Consumer Confidence Index slightly improving to -21, suggesting a nuanced consumer sentiment landscape.

Looking Ahead

Key upcoming events include the ECB President Lagarde’s speech, anticipated to shed light on the ECB’s 2022 Annual Report. This address could offer crucial insights into Europe’s monetary policy outlook, potentially swaying the EUR/USD pair.

For GBP/USD, speeches by MPC Members Breeden and Pill, coupled with the CBI Realized Sales data, are on the radar. These developments are pivotal, providing clues to the Bank of England’s future monetary policy directions and the broader economic health in the UK.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

The Dollar Index saw a marginal increase, trading at 103.968, up by 0.01%. The 4-hour chart highlights key levels for traders: a pivot point at 103.824, indicating bullish sentiment above this mark. Resistance levels are set at 104.292, 104.591, and 104.966, which could cap upward movements. Conversely, support is found at 103.422, 103.168, and 102.911, marking potential rebound zones.

Technical indicators, including the 50-Day EMA at 104.089 and the 200-Day EMA at 103.782, suggest a bullish outlook, as long as the index remains above the pivot point of 103.824. This indicates a slight bullish bias in the market, with the Dollar Index positioned for potential gains if it maintains its stance above the pivot, reflecting investor confidence and a favorable technical posture.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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