USD, EUR, GBP Price Forecast: ECB Speech Impact, DXY Targets Pivot at 103.82

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Published: Feb 26, 2024, 07:43 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

ECB President Lagarde's upcoming speech may significantly influence the EUR/USD pair's future direction.
GBP/USD poised for movement with MPC Member speeches and CBI Realized Sales data on the horizon.
Dollar Index shows slight bullish bias; key indicators suggest potential gains if above pivot point 103.824.

USD, EUR, GBP Price Forecast: ECB Speech Impact, DXY Targets Pivot at 103.82

Navigating Currency Trends: Insights on EUR/USD and GBP/USD

The Dollar Index today signals a slight bearish shift, marking a -0.08% decrease at $103.877. On Friday, the German Final GDP quarter-on-quarter remained steady at -0.3%, aligning with predictions.

The German ifo Business Climate Index slightly outperformed expectations, reporting at 85.5, while the Belgian NBB Business Climate fell short, indicating a dip to -12.8. The ECOFIN Meetings also drew attention, underscoring ongoing economic discussions within the EU.

In the UK, the focus was on consumer confidence, with the GfK Consumer Confidence Index slightly improving to -21, suggesting a nuanced consumer sentiment landscape.

Looking Ahead

Key upcoming events include the ECB President Lagarde’s speech, anticipated to shed light on the ECB’s 2022 Annual Report. This address could offer crucial insights into Europe’s monetary policy outlook, potentially swaying the EUR/USD pair.

For GBP/USD, speeches by MPC Members Breeden and Pill, coupled with the CBI Realized Sales data, are on the radar. These developments are pivotal, providing clues to the Bank of England’s future monetary policy directions and the broader economic health in the UK.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index saw a marginal increase, trading at 103.968, up by 0.01%. The 4-hour chart highlights key levels for traders: a pivot point at 103.824, indicating bullish sentiment above this mark. Resistance levels are set at 104.292, 104.591, and 104.966, which could cap upward movements. Conversely, support is found at 103.422, 103.168, and 102.911, marking potential rebound zones.

Technical indicators, including the 50-Day EMA at 104.089 and the 200-Day EMA at 103.782, suggest a bullish outlook, as long as the index remains above the pivot point of 103.824. This indicates a slight bullish bias in the market, with the Dollar Index positioned for potential gains if it maintains its stance above the pivot, reflecting investor confidence and a favorable technical posture.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD marginally increased by 0.03%, reaching 1.08206. The currency pair’s pivot point at 1.08147 indicates bullish potential above this mark. Resistance levels are identified at 1.08576, 1.08872, and 1.09269, suggesting possible upward movement. Support is found at 1.07907, 1.07615, and 1.07331, highlighting areas for potential buying interest.

Technical analysis shows the 50-Day EMA at 1.07993 and the 200-Day EMA at 1.08217, both supporting a bullish outlook for the pair. Staying above these averages suggests continued strength, with the EURUSD pair poised for further gains in a favorable technical environment.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD notched a modest gain of 0.03%, trading at 1.26660. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at 1.26488, hinting at bullish momentum above this level. Resistance is found at 1.26932, 1.27215, and 1.27586, setting the stage for potential advances. Support lies at 1.26111, followed by 1.25778 and 1.25385, indicating levels where buyers might emerge.

Technical indicators, including the 50-Day EMA at 1.26318 and the 200-Day EMA at 1.26390, support a bullish outlook. As long as GBPUSD stays above the pivot point, the trend leans towards further appreciation, suggesting a positive trajectory in the near term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.