USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Probe Higher Against the Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 19.06.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has probed higher against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday, as it looks like the greenback is going to continue to be very resilient against the Japanese yen. This makes a certain amount of sense considering that the Bank of Japan has failed to take decisive action yet again, as they seemingly are completely open to the idea of staying loose for the foreseeable future. If that’s going to be the case, then the Japanese yen is going to lose to almost all currencies, the US dollar included.

It’s worth noting that we just broke out of a massive bullish flag, and it does measure for a move all the way to the ¥148 level. After that, we could go to ¥150, and I certainly think at this point in time that most traders at least have that idea on the back of their head. The market certainly looks as if it is a “buy on the dips” situation, with the bullish flag offering a bit of support, and it certainly looks as if we are getting ready to take off to the upside given enough time. Not only does the flag offer support, but we also have the ¥138 level underneath there offering a potential floor in the market as well.

Keep in mind that level was the previous resistance barrier of the ascending triangle, and therefore a certain amount of “market memory” comes into the picture. Speaking of the ascending triangle, it also measures for a move to roughly ¥148, so I think it all lined up quite nicely and it’s probably only a matter of time before the search for yield continues to carry this pair higher as it is essentially the “carry trade” of old. It’s not until we break down below the ¥138 level on a daily close that I would be concerned about the overall trend. At this point, it does not look like we have any real threat of that, so I like the idea of going long in this pair over the longer term.

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