USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Falls Again Against Japanese Yen

The US dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday, but then fell after Donald Trump suggested that waiting until after the election decided China deal was a realistic option.
Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY Price Forecast - US Dollar Falls Again Against Japanese Yen

As the US dollar against the Japanese yen is typically a risk sensitive currency pair, it should not be a huge surprise that we have seen it fall after Donald Trump suggested that the China deal might be better served being done after the election, which of course is in November 2020. That had people worried about more tariffs, and as a result it looks likely that the traders out there will continue to be in more of a “risk off” mode for the short term. However, longer-term traders have recognized a pattern here: as soon as the markets take a nosedive, Donald Trump will tweet or state something that is positive, in order to diminish the negativity of the situation. In a sense, one of the greatest market manipulators these days is the president of the United States.

USD/JPY Video 04.12.19

In this pair, we are getting close to the 200 day EMA and it is being approached by the 50 day EMA. If the 50 day EMA were across above the 200 day EMA, that is essentially what is known as the “golden cross” which is a very bullish sign. Longer-term traders tend to pay attention to this, and it will probably kick off another move to the upside. We have not been able to break above the ¥110 level though, so that of course is going to be the target for buyers to finally break out and send this pair much higher. If we break down below the ¥108 level, then it’s possible that we could drop another 100 pips as well.

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