USD/JPY Weekly Forecast – US Dollar Launches Against the Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 24.07.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back just a bit during the course of the trading week, to test the ¥138 level. The ¥138 level is the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and now that we have retested it and seen the US dollar takeoff, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before the market tries to take out the ¥142.50 level, possibly even to the ¥145 level. The ¥145 level is an area where we have pulled back from, and of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people would be paying attention to.

All things being equal, I believe this is a market that offers a “buy on the dip” type of scenario, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation that the market eventually tries to go even higher, with the highs from 2022 being targeted. As long as we can stay above the crucial ¥138 level, then it’s likely that we will continue to see buyers come into this market, and that we would continue the overall move higher.

As far as selling is concerned, I have no interest in doing so, and therefore it’s likely that we see plenty of upward momentum from everything I see. After all, the Bank of Japan continues to be very loose with its monetary policy while the Federal Reserve continues to tighten. The Bank of Japan overnight reiterated its lack of any concerns about tightening monetary policy, so therefore the more aggressive Federal Reserve continues to win this argument. With this, I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we break out even further.

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