USD/JPY Weekly Forecast – USD/JPY Continues to Rally After Initial Fall

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 05-02-2024

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

You can see we initially fell during the week, but we have popped rather hard to the upside during the session on Friday to turn things around. All things being equal, this is a market that still looks very much the same as every time it dip, buyers come in and trying to pick up cheap dollars. The bank of Japan, of course, is going to continue to be very loose with its monetary policy and has blinked every time it had the opportunity to change its overall attitude.

With that being the case, I think you have to assume eventually the U S dollar rallies to reach the double top at the 152 yen level. In fact, you can even make a little bit of an argument for an ascending triangle, which of course would be a very bullish find as well. A short-term pullback may reach down towards the 50 week EMA. But I think that’s about as low as we get, especially after the jobs number came out twice what was anticipated.

The Federal Reserve really cannot start loosening monetary policy anytime soon. Ultimately, I do think that we test the highs again, and it’s possible that we even break above there given enough time. How long that takes is going to be anybody’s guess, but at this point I do think it eventually has to happen due to just how bullish this overall pattern has been in this pair for so long.

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