USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – US dollar continues to consolidate against Japanese yen

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the week but has broken down from the same resistance barrier that we have seen. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of trouble at the same levels after a less than clear Jerome Powell speech.
Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY weekly chart, August 26, 2019

The US dollar has continued to go back and forth during the week, reaching towards the ¥107 level before rolling over yet again. Because of this, ¥107 is an area that you should be watching as it has been crucial more than once. Ultimately, I think that this market really hasn’t decided much after the speech, and now is simply going to wait to see whether or not we can break out of the 200 point range that we had been in. To that point, the ¥105 level underneath continues to be massive support, so keep in mind that if we were to break down below there it could be a rather negative sign.

USD/JPY Video 26.08.19

I anticipate that we will probably go looking towards the bottom, and then perhaps try to break down below it. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to find plenty of reasons to struggle, as it is a risk barometer. With the global trade wars getting worse, and of course global growth slowing down, it looks to be like the Japanese yen will still be in demand. That doesn’t mean that it’s an easy longer-term trade, but clearly we have much more negative pressure out there than positive right now. If we were to break down below the ¥105 level on a daily close, that does in fact open up the door to the ¥102.50 level, and then eventually the ¥100 level. To the upside, I don’t have much in the way of thought only because we would need good news to make that happen. There seems to be a massive shortage of that right now.

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