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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 11, 2015, 11:41 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is on a roller coaster ride adding 58 points today after seeing the pair take a major decline late in the

USD/CAD Daily Forecast

usdcad tuesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is on a roller coaster ride adding 58 points today after seeing the pair take a major decline late in the trading day on Monday. The CAD is trading at 1.3060 as oil and gold were a bit stronger than they were over the weekend. The devaluation of the yuan by China has surprised the markets giving the CAD a boost while the Aussie and the kiwi bite the dust.

Canada’s dollar needs to remain weak for years to revive battered manufacturers, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.

The currency reached the weakest since 2004 on Aug. 5 at C$1.3213 per U.S. dollar, after the central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year citing a drop in energy investment and puzzling weakness in other exports. The currency may need to trade between C$1.30 and C$1.40 for at least several years.

“It’s going to be less about how much further it goes from here, it’s already been an epic decline,” Rosenberg said in an interview Monday with Joe Wiesenthal and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television. “It’s really going to be many, many years that the Canadian dollar really flirts with the bottom that it’s at right now.”

Canada’s manufacturing market share with its free trade partners the U.S. and Mexico has fallen to a record low, Rosenberg said. Part of that is payback from when the nation’s currency reached parity with the U.S. dollar, which happened in 2007 and again as recently as 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)

1.2%

1.0%

1.8%

 

 

  CNY

 

New Loans

1,480.0B

725.0B

1,280.0B

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Jul)

4

11

8

   

  EUR

 

German ZEW Current Conditions

65.7

64.3

63.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

25.0

32.0

29.7

 

 

  EUR

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment

47.6

43.9

42.7

   

 

USDCAD(15 minutes)20150811071352

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

-2.400M

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)

 

0.6%

0.5%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.8%

0.8%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index

 

0.1%

-0.7%

 

 

  CNY

 

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)

 

11.5%

11.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)

 

6.6%

6.8%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Jul)

 

1.5K

7.0K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate (Jun)

 

5.6%

5.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

 

-0.2%

-0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

 

5.300M

5.363M

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

-4.407M

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget Balance (Jul)

 

-132.0B

51.8B

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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