Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is on a roller coaster ride adding 58 points today after seeing the pair take a major decline late in the
The USD/CAD is on a roller coaster ride adding 58 points today after seeing the pair take a major decline late in the trading day on Monday. The CAD is trading at 1.3060 as oil and gold were a bit stronger than they were over the weekend. The devaluation of the yuan by China has surprised the markets giving the CAD a boost while the Aussie and the kiwi bite the dust.
Canada’s dollar needs to remain weak for years to revive battered manufacturers, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.
The currency reached the weakest since 2004 on Aug. 5 at C$1.3213 per U.S. dollar, after the central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year citing a drop in energy investment and puzzling weakness in other exports. The currency may need to trade between C$1.30 and C$1.40 for at least several years.
“It’s going to be less about how much further it goes from here, it’s already been an epic decline,” Rosenberg said in an interview Monday with Joe Wiesenthal and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television. “It’s really going to be many, many years that the Canadian dollar really flirts with the bottom that it’s at right now.”
Canada’s manufacturing market share with its free trade partners the U.S. and Mexico has fallen to a record low, Rosenberg said. Part of that is payback from when the nation’s currency reached parity with the U.S. dollar, which happened in 2007 and again as recently as 2013.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul) |
1.2% |
1.0% |
1.8% |
|
||
CNY |
New Loans |
1,480.0B |
725.0B |
1,280.0B |
|
||
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence (Jul) |
4 |
11 |
8 |
|||
EUR |
German ZEW Current Conditions |
65.7 |
64.3 |
63.9 |
|
||
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
25.0 |
32.0 |
29.7 |
|
||
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
47.6 |
43.9 |
42.7 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
USD |
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
|
|
-2.400M |
|
||
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
||
AUD |
Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) |
|
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
||
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) |
|
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
||
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index |
|
0.1% |
-0.7% |
|
||
CNY |
Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul) |
|
11.5% |
11.4% |
|
||
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) |
|
6.6% |
6.8% |
|
||
GBP |
Claimant Count Change (Jul) |
|
1.5K |
7.0K |
|
||
GBP |
Unemployment Rate (Jun) |
|
5.6% |
5.6% |
|
||
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) |
|
-0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
||
USD |
JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) |
|
5.300M |
5.363M |
|
||
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
|
-4.407M |
|
||
USD |
Federal Budget Balance (Jul) |
|
-132.0B |
51.8B |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt
Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund
Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz
Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt
Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug