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USDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD Forecast: Yen, Aussie, and Kiwi Ride Wave of Market Optimism

By:
Arslan Ali
Updated: Nov 21, 2023, 07:05 GMT+00:00

USDJPY dips as market sentiment turns cautious; RSI indicates oversold conditions.

Asian Session Recap

In this article:

Key Insights

  • Asian currencies rally against the dollar as U.S. rate hike fears wane.
  • Yuan reaches late July high, PBoC sets strong midpoint.
  • Yen gains 0.6%, hits three-month peak despite BoJ’s dovishness.
  • AUD up 0.5% after RBA hints at more rate hikes.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Asian currencies gained notably against the dollar due to reduced concerns over U.S. interest rate hikes, with attention shifting to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.

The optimism around China’s potential support for its property sector also contributed to the sentiment. The yuan strengthened considerably, hitting a high since late July, supported by the People’s Bank of China’s firm midpoint settings.

The Japanese yen saw a 0.6% uptick, reaching a three-month high amid reduced intervention expectations, although its outlook remains cautious due to the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance.

The Australian dollar’s 0.5% rise came after comments on persistent inflation from the Reserve Bank’s Governor, suggesting further rate hikes might be forthcoming.

Meanwhile, the Taiwanese dollar’s surge hints at possible easing of cross-strait tensions, while the South Korean won and Indian rupee saw more modest movements.

USD/JPY Prices Forecast

USD/JPY Chart
USD/JPY Chart

The USD/JPY pair has seen a downturn, retreating 0.71% to 147.337, amid a cautious market sentiment. Technical indicators paint a bearish picture, with the pair trading below the pivotal 148.209 mark.

Immediate resistance levels at 149.090 and 150.138 loom overhead, potentially capping upward movements. Should a reversal occur, the currency pair may find support at 147.446, with further cushions at 146.599 and 145.891.

The RSI stands at 36, hinting at potential oversold conditions, while the MACD’s dip below the signal line reinforces the bearish outlook. The pair’s break below the upward channel and pivot point underscores the current downward pressure.

A continued bearish trajectory is anticipated unless it reclaims ground above the pivot, with traders closely monitoring the 148.20 threshold for a possible shift in trend.

AUD/USD Prices Forecast

AUD/USD - Chart
AUD/USD – Chart

The AUD/USD pair is charting a bullish course, climbing 0.36% to a trading stance of 0.65530, buoyed by market optimism. It navigates north of the pivot point at 0.65415, eying a succession of resistance levels—0.66095, 0.66526, and 0.66859—that stand as potential targets for upward momentum.

Should a retreat occur, supports at 0.65004, 0.64540, and 0.63937 offer a safety net. The RSI, currently over 70, flags an overbought market, while the MACD’s positive crossover implies continued bullishness.

Surpassing the 50 EMA of 0.648 reaffirms the uptrend. If the Aussie sustains above 0.6538, further ascension is projected, positioning the pair to challenge immediate resistances in the near term.

NZD/USD Prices Forecast

NZD/USD Chart
NZD/USD Chart

The New Zealand Dollar is on an upward path, appreciating by 0.45% against the US Dollar, with a current exchange rate of 0.60647. The currency pair is positioned just below the pivotal 0.60680 mark, with potential resistance levels at 0.61000, 0.61490, and 0.61991, offering milestones for possible gains.

Conversely, support forms at 0.60022, with further fallbacks at 0.59515 and 0.58968 should the uptrend falter. The RSI is nearing overbought at 69, while the MACD’s positive stance suggests sustained bullishness.

Crossing above the 50-day EMA of 0.598 reinforces this trend. An upward trendline and a triple top resistance breakout at 0.60483 hint at a bullish outlook, with the NZD/USD pair expected to test higher resistance imminently, contingent on maintaining above the 0.60483 threshold.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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