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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY ended the week at 85.88 off the weekly high of 86.63 its strongest since August 2010. Traders reported

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013, Forecast

In this article:

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013, Forecast
USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013, Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY ended the week at 85.88 off the weekly high of 86.63 its strongest since August 2010. Traders reported options barriers at 86.75 and 87.00 yen. Expectations the new Japanese government will push for further easing in monetary policy have weighed heavily on the yen and analysts say it could fall further. The yen has hit more than two-year lows against the dollar for three straight days. The dollar has gained 12 percent against the yen in 2012, putting it on track for its biggest annual percentage drop since 2005. The dollar looked set to end the week above its 200-week moving average, now around 84.95 yen, for the first time since late December 2007, a technical signal indicating further gains.

 Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 28, 2012

85.88

86.50

86.55

85.88

-0.71%

Dec 27, 2012

86.49

85.69

86.63

85.59

0.94%

Dec 26, 2012

85.69

85.02

85.72

85.02

0.79%

Dec 25, 2012

85.02

84.87

85.06

84.77

0.17%

Dec 24, 2012

84.87

84.42

84.87

84.33

0.53%

This is a short holiday week with many markets closed on Monday as well as Tuesday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 24 -28 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 27

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

350K

360K

362K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3206K

3200K

3238K

 

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

65.1

70.0

71.5

 

USD

New Home Sales 

377K

378K

361K

 

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6%

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.7%

-0.5%

1.6%

 

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.3%

1.1%

-1.2%

Dec. 28 

USD

Chicago PMI 

51.6

51.0

50.4

 

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

1.7%

1.0%

5.0%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Jan. 01

01:00

CNY

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

51.00

50.60

Jan. 02

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.2

49.5

 

Upcoming Government Bond

Date Time Country 

Thursday, January 5: France will auction an estimated €7-8 billion ($9.1-10.4 billion) in 10-year and other long-term bonds 

Tuesday, January 10: Austria will auction €1.3 billion ($1.7 billion) in 5- and 10-year bonds

Thursday, January 12: Spanish 3- and 5-year bond auction

Friday, January 13: Italy will auction medium-long term bonds

Thursday, January 19: France will auction 5-year bonds

Thursday, January 19: Spanish 10-, 15-, and 30-year bond auction

Thursday, January 26: Italian long-term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Italian medium-long term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Belgian bond auction

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