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Walmart, Target and Costco Forecast: Retail Stocks Face Key Tests

By
Christopher Lewis

Walmart eyes its $115 gap, Target holds a bullish flag and Costco approaches earnings as retail stocks put the health of the U.S. consumer in focus.

WMT Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart of Walmart (WMT) trading at $107.44 with pre-market pricing at $108.00, below the 50-day EMA at $109.89 and the 200-day EMA at $113.67.
Daily price chart of Walmart showing shares attempting a rebound to $107.44, below the 50-day EMA at $109.89 and the 200-day EMA at $113.67. Source: TradingView

The pre-market for Walmart is somewhat positive, and it does look like the market is trying to turn things around after a pretty ugly drop right around earnings a couple of weeks ago.

Ultimately, this is a theme in the sector. There were some concerns about rising interest rates and damage to the consumer in America. But I can assure you, as somebody who lives in America, people have not stopped buying. Therefore, value hunters have stepped into Walmart to perhaps try to take advantage of its massive consumer base.

There were some concerns about rising interest rates and damage to the consumer in America.

The 50-day EMA at $109.89 is a little bit of a barrier, but there is still a gap that has yet to be filled that goes all the way to the $115 level. Earnings are out of the way, and rates have drifted a little bit lower, so perhaps Walmart could find a bid.

TGT Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart of Target (TGT) trading at $157.71 with pre-market at $157.75, holding above the 50-day EMA at $152.38 and 200-day EMA at $131.42 within a bullish flag consolidation
Daily price chart of Target consolidating at $157.71 while remaining supported above its 50-day moving average. Source: TradingView

Target looks like it’s going to open up roughly about the same as it closed. That being said, there’s a massive bullish flag on Target that suggests that perhaps, at least from a technical analysis standpoint, the market could go much higher. The only thing missing here, of course, will be momentum.

But it’s worth noting that we’ve been in an uptrend for quite some time, and we do have the 50-day EMA at $152.38 coming into the picture to offer a little bit of support. So that might be worth watching as well.

COST Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart of Costco (COST) trading at $898.48 with pre-market at $902.02, sitting below the 50-day EMA at $934.09 and 200-day EMA at $955.05 ahead of earnings.
Daily price chart of Costco indicating technical consolidation at $898.48 ahead of its quarterly earnings release. Source: TradingView

Finally, Costco looks like it’s going to jump a little bit at the open. This is a market that recently had broken structure, but it has an earnings call on Thursday, and that could make this a potential surprise. If the earnings call comes out better than anticipated, those sellers may find themselves in trouble.

It’s Thursday after the bell. Earnings estimates are $6.53 per share, with revenue at $94.86 billion. Keep in mind, though, a lot of attention will probably be paid to forward guidance. There seems to be a lot of concern out there, but if Costco can really beat that earnings call, it could be a solid move.

Between now and then, we could see a little bit of short covering. That might be part of what we’re seeing now.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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