Week Ahead: Bitcoin (BTC) on the Verge of Bullish Price Action —Key Indicators

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin’s (BTC) price reclaimed $28,000 on Saturday, October 7, to end a third consecutive week in profit
• A vital Bitcoin on-chain indicator shows that US Labor Statistics reports sent US-based whales into a buying frenzy. 
• Technical analysis in the daily time frame suggests a generally positive BTC price trend in the medium to long term. 

Bitcoin (BTC) price reclaimed $28,000 on Saturday, closing a third consecutive week in profit since it wobbled below $25,000 on Sept 12. An in-depth analysis reveals how US-based whale investors drove the recent leg-up and the likely Bitcoin price action to expect in the week ahead. 

Bitcoin Price Reclaimed $28,000 After Positive US Labor Statistics Report. 

On October 6, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for the month ended. The records show that non-farm payrolls, the number of new employees engaged in non-farming activity, had increased by 336,000 in September.

Notably, market analysts had priced-in a consensus expectation of 170,000, according to the financial data analytics platform TradingEconomics. 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is a vital economic indicator in the United States, that impacts various financial markets, including Bitcoin.

Typically, when an NFP report exceeds market expectations, it indicates improved economic health and a strengthening job market. They key factors often bode well for risk-on assets in the mid-to-long-term 

With the latest NFP report having exceeded August 2023 figures by 48%, it’s no surprise major Bitcoin investors in the USA and beyond swung into action over the weekend. 

US-Based Bitcoin Whales Have Increased Buying Pressure 

The recent NFP report appears to have boosted Bitcoin whales’ confidence. In an indication of this, CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index shows that crypto whales based in the US have increased buying pressure.

As depicted below, BTC Coinbase Premium Index has reached a 30-day peak of 0.71 on October 6 

CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index is a useful metric for analyzing the price difference between Bitcoin (BTC) on Coinbase Pro and the Binance exchange. 

Binance is a leading global player in BTC retail trading. In contrast, Coinbase Pro predominantly attracts trading activity from US-based entities and high-net-worth investors seeking a regulated trading environment.

Hence, when the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index enters the green zone, it indicates a slight margin where BTC spot prices on Coinbase surpass those on Binance. This occurrence signifies an increase in buying pressure primarily driven by US investors.

BTC Price Prediction: The $30,000 Target Remains Viable

Looking at historical data, the provided chart demonstrates a pattern where BTC prices have often surged in the days following a shift of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium into positive territory. 

Hence, Bitcoin bulls can anticipate a move toward the $30,000 in the week ahead. 

From a technical analysis standpoint analyzing the daily time frame, both Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) suggest a generally positive trend in the medium to long term.  

Hence, if the bulls force an upswing as predicted, the BTC price will likely face initial resistance at the 28,700 range. But if the resistance gives way, the Bitcoin could promptly reclaim $30,000. 

But if bears turn the tide, they could encounter a major support buy-wall at $26,900. But failure to hold this could trigger a larger downswing toward $25,000