Weekly Waves 1 May: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and US30

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and US30 on the daily chart.

EUR/USD Wave 3 Creates Freefall to 1.05

The EUR/USD is falling quickly. The price decline was mentioned in last week’s Elliott Wave analysis. Let’s review how far it can decline:

1. The EUR/USD decline is part of a wave 3 of wave 3. The bearish impulse has accelerated last week, which is indicating a wave 3 pattern.
2. Price action is building a small pullback but an immediate breakout (red arrow) below the support line (green) is expected at the beginning of May.
3. The main target is the 1.0325-1.0375 zone.
4. If the 1.05 support zone does create a larger bullish pullback, then price action is expected to respect the shallow 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.
5. A bearish bounce and continuation would confirm a wave 4 (orange) pattern.
6. A break above the 1.07-1.0770 resistance places the downtrend analysis on hold.
7. Price action could fall as deep as 1.0250 and 1.00 (parity).

BTC/USD Building Falling Wedge Chart Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not yet made a bullish bounce but the bearish price action looks choppy:

1. The BTC/USD choppy price action could be explained by a falling wedge chart pattern (purple lines), which often indicates a reversal.
2. A break (green arrow) above the resistance could confirm the bullish price swing and the end of the wave B (pink).
3. A bullish ABC (pink) pattern is expected. A bullish breakout could also indicate the start f% and the wave C (pink).
4. A bearish breakout does invalidate the ABC pattern because the 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci levels could act as support.
5. Only a break below the bottom invalidates the bullish ABC pattern.
6. Once price action reaches the Fibonacci targets, a bearish reversal is expected within a wave C (green).

US30 Bearish Decline Continues

The US30 already made a strong bearish bounce two weeks ago. This week the bearish pressure remained visible:

1. The US30 daily chart went up and down during the first 4 trading days last week but ultimately closed in negative territory with the strong bearish Friday candle.
2. The bearish decline is now testing the support trend line (green). A bearish breakout could indicate a decline towards the 50% Fibonacci level.
3. A downtrend is expected to remain in place as long as price action does not break above the resistance (orange) of the downtrend channel.
4. A bearish ABC (pink) pattern is expected within wave W (green) of a larger WXY correction in wave 4 (blue).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter