Weekly Waves 9 May: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and US30

EUR/USD Complex Correction

The EUR/USD is testing a key support zone again. The main question is whether the EUR/USD make a bearish breakout:

1. The EUR/USD wave pattern suggests that a longer and complex chart pattern is expected to take place.
2. The downtrend however is expected to remain valid after the correction is completed.
3. A bearish breakout would invalidate the complex correction but confirm the immediate downtrend.
4. If a bullish bounce does occur, then a wave C (green) can develop within wave B (blue).
5. A larger ABC (blue) would finish wave X (pink) of a larger wave Y (pink) of wave 4 (gray).
6. The wave 4 (gray) may not correct above the 50% Fibonacci, otherwise it is likely to actually be a wave 4.
7. Once the downtrend restarts, the main targets are expected 1.0375, 1.0325, 1.025, and even 1.00.

BTC/USD Key Bearish Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has made a bearish breakout and push below the support trend lines (dotted green):

1. The BTC/USD bearish breakout invalidates the expected bullish complex correction of last week.
2. The Elliott Wave analysis has been therefore changed to reflect the new bearish breakout. The current view is a 5 wave (blue) pattern within wave A (pink).
3. A larger ABC (pink) pattern could unfold within a wave 4 (gray) or within a wave W of a larger WXY.
4. The main bearish target of the wave 5 (blue) is the support zone (blue box) or the -27.2% Fibonacci target.

US30 Downtrend Channel Emerges

The US30 remains bearish too, as expected in our analysis last week:

1. The US30 had again a bearish weekly candle. The high of the candle tested the resistance of the previous weekly high but saw a serious sell off.
2. A bearish push towards 50% Fibonacci level is now expected (orange arrow).
3. A bullish retracement could take place at the Fibonacci levels (green arrows) but ultimately, a larger bearish retracement is expected.
4. If price action stays above the 50% Fibonacci level, then a wave 3-4 (gray) is still possible.
5. But a break below the 50% Fib indicates a deeper ABC (blue) correction within wave W (green) of wave 4 (pink).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter