WTI and Brent Crude Forecasts – Summer Range Consolidation Limits Big Market Moves

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Are we trying to build a base? The light sweet crude oil market has rallied a bit to test the $70 level, a large round, psychologically significant figure that, of course, attracts a certain amount of attention.

But really, at this point in time, I think what you’ve got is a market that’s trying to find some type of bottom. We’ve filled the gap from the announcement of the US attack on Iran, so we’ve done a complete round trip at this point.

Rallies at this juncture, I think, will continue to see a lot of overhead resistance, and that could be what starts our summer range. Typically, this time of year, crude oil markets like to find a $10 range, sometimes tighter, to just simply bounce around in. I think we’re getting close to finding the bottom. I do find myself a little more bullish on the market than negative, but I’m not looking for big moves. Short-term trading only here, from what I can see.

Brent Technical Analysis

The Brent market looks very much the same. We have bounced from the $70 level in the last couple of trading sessions. As far as a ceiling is concerned, the $77 level is the bottom of the initial shot, higher when we gapped to the upside after the war. Maybe that makes a target.

I think at this point it’s a little too early to tell, but it certainly looks as if buyers are trying to return. $70 makes sense as it is a potential options barrier for support, possibly also some psychology at play there.

Again, I’m more bullish than bearish at this point. We’re just so oversold, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that I want to put a lot of money into this market. I think we need to determine where we want to be before traders can approach with any real confidence.

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