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WTI Crude Oil and Brent Forecast: Bulls Eye Value on Pullback

By: 
Christopher Lewis

WTI and Brent pull back after a sharp rally, but supply disruption risks keep the outlook positive as traders watch for value and Brent eyes $100.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart for WTI Crude Oil futures (CL1!) showing price pulling back to 99.22, trading above the 50-day EMA at 86.03 and the 200-day EMA at 80.77.
Daily price chart for WTI Crude Oil futures showing price giving back recent parabolic gains to 99.22, holding well above the 50 EMA (86.03) and 200 EMA (80.77). Source: TradingView

Light sweet crude pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday. That is probably not a huge surprise. We had gone parabolic, and therefore a little bit of a giveback is not the craziest thing to think about.

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That being said, this is a market that will still be held hostage by the latest headlines and the potential for random noise. There are a lot of concerns about supply disruptions, and I just do not see how that disappears. With that in mind, it is very difficult to get short of oil at this point. I am more of a buy-on-the-dip type of person.

We have broken out pretty significantly and pulled back a bit. Sooner or later, people will be looking to find some type of value here, and it would only take one headline to have this thing freak out yet again.

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Brent Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart for Brent Crude Oil futures (BZ1!) showing price retreating to 104.07, remaining above the 100.00 psychological level, the 50-day EMA at 91.25, and the 200-day EMA at 85.64.
Daily price chart for Brent Crude Oil futures showing price dipping to 104.07 as profit-taking sets in above the 100.00 mark, supported by the 50 EMA (91.25) and 200 EMA (85.64). Source: TradingView

The Brent market looks very much the same. It has, at one point, been as high as just under $110 a barrel. It looks like it is heading back toward the $100 level. That is an area with a lot of psychology attached to it, as well as market memory, so I will be watching that area.

I honestly do not like the idea of trading oil right now because it just moves on the latest headlines, which are about as random as they get. Although the one thing that I do know is that anytime the market seems to cool off, something bad happens to send it back up in the air.

I remain positive on the price of oil. I just need to find some value here.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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