WTI Crude Oil Prices Edge Lower Ahead of US PCE Report
- WTI crude oil down 4% for the month
- U.S. PCE inflation figures to impact Fed policy and USD
- House of Representatives passes bill to boost oil and gas production
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are down on Friday, putting the market in a position to record its weakest monthly performance since November.
At 08:48 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $74.14, down $0.35 or -0.47%. On Thursday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $65.31, up $1.16 or +1.81%.
Prices are weaker ahead of the release of important U.S. inflation data, which could provide insight into future interest rate adjustments and the strength of the dollar. A weaker greenback tends to drive up foreign demand for dollar-denominated crude oil.
US PCE Inflation Figures Could Impact WTI Crude Oil Prices
WTI crude oil prices are down 4% for the month, due to concerns over a global banking crisis, which abated after two banks were rescued.
The markets are now waiting for U.S. PCE inflation figures, which are expected to ease to 0.4% in February. This data could impact Fed policy and the U.S. Dollar.
On Thursday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to boost U.S. oil and gas production while reducing climate initiatives.
Oil prices were buoyed by reduced output in oilfields in northern Iraq and data showing a two-year low in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. China’s manufacturing activity rose in March, albeit at a slower pace compared to February’s record-breaking expansion. Meanwhile, OPEC and allies led by Russia are expected to maintain their existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting on Monday.
Daily June WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $80.97 will change the main trend to up. A move through $64.58 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through $72.76 will change the minor trend to down.
The short-term range is $80.97 to $64.58. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at $72.78 to $74.71.
The major resistance zone is $75.49 – $78.06. The major support level is $68.76.
Daily June WTI Crude Oil Technical Forecast
Trader reaction to $74.71 is likely to determine the direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Friday.
A sustained move over $74.71 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into $75.49 – $78.06.
A sustained move under $74.71 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into the support cluster at $72.78 – $72.76.
Taking out $72.76 will shift momentum and could trigger a break into $70.87.