Crude Oil Prices Edge Higher as Supply Risks Support Bullish Sentiment
Light crude oil futures extended their rally on Tuesday, trading higher for a fifth consecutive session. Prices moved above a key pivot at $68.97, with this level now serving as near-term support. Additional support is seen at $67.24, while resistance looms in the $70.11–$70.84 zone, marked by the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Trader reaction around this resistance band will be pivotal for the next major move.
Tariff Moves on Venezuelan Oil Add to Supply Risk
The U.S. decision to impose a 25% tariff on countries importing Venezuelan oil has intensified concerns over global supply tightening. Venezuela, heavily reliant on oil exports, faces further strain as China—its largest crude buyer—is already under U.S. tariff pressure. The move could materially disrupt global crude balances, ING analysts noted, supporting a bullish undertone in the oil market.
Chevron’s extended deadline to cease operations in Venezuela by May 27 also points to a likely production hit. ANZ estimates a potential drop of around 200,000 barrels per day, which would further squeeze available supply from the country. Meanwhile, recent U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian exports add another layer to the tightening supply narrative.
Macro Risks Temper Bullish Momentum
Despite the bullish supply-side developments, broader macro uncertainty continues to limit aggressive long positioning. Market participants remain cautious amid U.S. tariff threats across multiple sectors, including autos, and concerns that slower global growth could dent oil demand. However, reports that some of the upcoming U.S. tariffs may be implemented selectively helped lift broader risk assets, including crude.
OPEC+ to Proceed with Gradual Output Hike
Four OPEC+ sources indicated the group is expected to move forward with another modest output increase in May. This aligns with the alliance’s strategy of balancing stable prices with internal quota adjustments. Some members may be required to reduce their production in the coming months to offset previous overproduction, effectively neutralizing the overall impact of the planned increase.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
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See all Brent Oil forecastsOil Prices Forecast: Bullish Outlook Supported by Tightening Fundamentals
With Venezuelan and Iranian exports under pressure and Chevron’s operations winding down, supply-side constraints are taking center stage. Although macroeconomic uncertainty persists, the net effect points to a tightening global crude market.
As long as WTI holds above the $68.97 pivot, the path of least resistance appears higher, with a potential challenge of the $70.11 –$70.84 zone likely in the near term. The current oil prices forecast leans bullish.
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