XRP and Sub-$0.45 in the Hands of SEC v Ripple Court Rulings

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP saw red for a sixth consecutive day, falling by 0.42% to end the day at $0.46126.
• Investor impatience over the lack of SEC v Ripple case rulings continued to weigh, with US economic indicators adding to the bearish mood.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to $0.43.

On Thursday, XRP fell by 0.42%. Following a 0.32% loss on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.46126. Significantly, XRP extended its losing streak to six sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early morning high of $0.46503. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4690, XRP fell to a late afternoon low of $0.45512. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4540, XRP bounced back to end the session at $0.46126.

US Recessionary Jitters and SEC v Ripple Silence Weighed

There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to garner investor interest. The lack of Court rulings left XRP investors on tenterhooks.

US economic indicators weighed on XRP and the broader market during the afternoon. The latest round of US stats revealed more cracks in the US economy as the Fed perseveres in bringing inflation to target.

Initial jobless claims increased from 229k to 242k, with nonfarm productivity sliding by 2.7% in Q1. However, unit labor costs surged by 6.3%. Economists forecast nonfarm productivity to fall by 1.8% and unit labor costs to increase by 5.5%.

Significantly, the latest economic indicators wiped out bets of a June interest rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike fell from 16.3% to 0% over 24 hours. In contrast, the bets on a 25-basis point interest rate cut increased from 6.6% to 9.2%.

However, political wrangling on Capitol Hill over the debt ceiling and the banking sector crisis remained tailwinds, limiting the downside on Thursday.

The Day Ahead

Investors should track SEC v Ripple case-related chatter and any Court rulings. There has been speculation that Judge Torres could deliver today. However, no updates would leave Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news and SEC activity to influence.

US economic indicators will also provide direction this afternoon, with the US Jobs Report due. After disappointing labor market numbers from Thursday, a weak nonfarm payroll figure would fuel recessionary jitters.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.16% to $0.46200. A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.46085 before rising to a high of $0.46338.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.4658 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4658. A breakout from the Thursday high of $0.46503 would signal a bullish session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and US economic indicators must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4704. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4803.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4559 in play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.4450. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4506 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4407.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.46555. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day ($0.46555) and R1 ($0.4658) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.4704) and the 100-day EMA ($0.47219). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.46555) would leave S1 ($0.4559) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.