XRP Faces a Choppy Session with SEC v Ripple Court Filings in Focus

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, XRP fell by 1.21% to end the session at $0.34364.
• Investor uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case likely contributed to profit-taking after Monday’s bullish session.
• The technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 100-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.33.

On Tuesday, XRP fell by 1.21%. Partially reversing a 2.76% rally from Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.34364. Significantly, XRP revisited $0.35 for a second consecutive session before easing back.

A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise to a mid-morning high of $0.35174 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3682, XRP slid to a mid-afternoon low of $0.34048. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3142, XRP revisited $0.3460 before easing back.

There were no material updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to move the dial.

XRP Faced a Choppy Session on Fed Fear and SEC v Ripple Silence

The lack of material updates from the SEC v Ripple case left investors to track the broader crypto market.

Fed fear gripped the global financial markets as the US markets reopened after the holidays. A resurgent dollar weighed on riskier assets as investors wait today’s FOMC meeting minutes. Hawkish minutes and better-than-expected US economic indicators would test support for riskier assets today.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTs Job Openings will be in focus ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes.

While the stats, the minutes, and the NASDAQ Index will provide direction, the SEC v Ripple case remains the key driver.

It is a busy start to the year. Today, non-parties must file motions to seal any summary judgment materials that differ from the redactions and sealing treatments requested by the parties. More importantly, parties are due to file oppositions to Omnibus Motions to seal on January 9 and Daubert Motions by January 13.

While the filings will draw interest, investors continue to await two Court rulings that may decide the outcome of the case and the future of the SEC as a crypto regulator.

One pivotal ruling relates to the William Hinman speech-related documents. The SEC is attempting to shield selected content from the public. Following more than six failed attempts at preventing the documents from becoming public, the latest move could be a last-ditch effort before considering a settlement.

As background, former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance William Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities. The contentious issue with the speech related to Hinman’s connection with Simpson Thacher, which is part of a group that promotes Enterprise Ethereum. After leaving the SEC, Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher.

The second ruling is on the Summary Judgment Reply briefs.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.81% to $0.34641. A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.34246 before rising to a high of $0.34776.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.3453 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3501 and the Tuesday high of $0.35174. A return to $0.35 would signal a bullish session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3565 and resistance at $0.36. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3678.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3388 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.33. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3340 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3228.

Court rulings on the SEC v Ripple case would remove the influence of the Support and Resistance levels.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.35094. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were mixed.

A move through R1 ($0.3501) and the 100-day ($0.35094) would give the bulls a run at the R1 ($0.3565) and the 200-day EMA ($0.36245). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.34570) would bring S1 ($0.3388) and sub-$0.3350 into view.