Key Insights:
- XRP rallied 4.79% on Monday, ending the session at $0.5779.
- Progress toward a BTC-spot ETF market drove demand for cryptos.
- On Tuesday, the focus will remain on BTC-spot ETF-related updates, SEC activity, and SEC v crypto cases.
The Monday Overview
On Monday, XRP rallied 4.79%. Reversing a 2.90% loss from Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.5779.
BTC-Spot ETFs: A Prelude to an XRP-Spot ETF Market
XRP ended a three-day losing streak on Monday. There were no SEC v Ripple case or Zakinov v Ripple case-related news to distract investors. The lack of case-related news left XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.
Significantly, the successful launch of a BTC-spot ETF market would support the evolution of a crypto-spot ETF market. Last week, Grayscale included XRP in its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), fueling speculation of an XRP-Spot ETF application. There is also speculation about BlackRock planning an XRP-spot ETF.
However, progress toward an XRP-spot ETF could hinge on SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. The crypto community attributes the interest in launching an XRP-spot ETF to the July ruling. Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security in programmatic sales.
There is also the Zakinov v Ripple case, where the plaintiffs allege Ripple sold XRP as an unregistered security. Rulings that XRP is a security could raise question marks about the launch of an XRP-spot ETF.
The SEC gave more warnings about investing in crypto on Monday.
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See all Bitcoin forecasts“Investments in crypto assets also can be exceptionally risky & are often volatile. A number of major platforms & crypto assets have become insolvent and/or lost value. Investments in crypto assets continue to be subject to significant risk.”
Gensler also continued to talk about fraudsters, adding,
“Fraudsters continue to exploit the rising popularity of crypto assets to lure retail investors into scams. These investments continue to be replete w/ fraud- bogus coin offerings, Ponzi & pyramid schemes, & outright theft where a project promoter disappears w/ investors’ money.”
Gensler’s warning follows a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) post from the SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy (SEC Investor Ed). The SEC Investor Ed posted the warning on Saturday.
Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton reacted to the Gensler posts, saying,
“Under Gary Gensler, the SEC has been caught lying in court in a crypto case and faces possible sanctions for it. It was harshly criticized by a federal judge for its lack of “faithful allegiance to the law” by hiding internal docs on crypto regulation. He let SBF’s fraud happen right under his nose.”
Anti-crypto rhetoric and SEC v crypto case-related news will continue influencing buyer demand for XRP. However, BTC-spot ETF-related updates will also need consideration. Approvals and inflows will be likely focal points.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
XRP sat below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
An XRP break above the $0.5835 resistance level would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would bring the $0.6354 resistance level into play.
On Tuesday, the markets will focus on SEC activity, BTC-spot ETF-related updates, and Ripple court cases.
However, a fall through the 200-day EMA would bring the $0.5470 support level into play.
The 14-day RSI reading, 41.77, suggests an XRP fall to the $0.5470 support level before entering oversold territory.
4-Hourly Chart
On the 4-hourly, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.
An XRP break above the $0.5835 resistance level and 50-day EMA would support a move to the 200-day EMA. Selling pressure could intensify at $0.5835. The 50-day EMA is confluence with the $0.5835 resistance level.
However, a drop below the $0.57 handle would give the bears a run at the $0.5470 support level.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 53.02, indicates an XRP move to the 200-day EMA before entering overbought territory.
