XRP News Today: BoJ Decision Looms as XRP Eyes $1.75 Support

XRP came under intense selling pressure for a second consecutive day on Thursday, December 18, testing key support at $1.8. Market jitters over a Bank of Japan rate hike continued to weigh on XRP and the broader crypto market.

Economists expect the BoJ to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday, December 19. A rate hike and a hawkish monetary policy outlook for 2026 would signal a narrowing in US-Japan rate differentials, raising the risk of a yen carry trade unwind.

Overnight, US inflation unexpectedly cooled in November, fueling bets on a March Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed rate path would further narrow rate differentials.

Fears of a yen carry trade unwind overshadowed resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs and reports of progress on the Market Structure Bill.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

Bank of Japan Takes Center Stage

The BoJ will announce its interest rate decision on Friday, December 19. While markets expect a 25-basis point rate hike, uncertainty remains over the BoJ’s neutral interest rate. The neutral rate is neither accommodative nor restrictive.

A neutral rate in the range of 1.5% to 2.0% would signal multiple rate hikes in 2026. Crucially, multiple BoJ rate hikes and a more dovish Fed policy stance would sharply narrow rate differentials, potentially making yen carry trades unprofitable. Furthermore, a stronger yen would send USD/JPY lower, adding fuel to a yen carry trade unwind.

Under these scenarios, traders would exit leveraged positions in risk assets and repay yen-denominated loans.

For context, the BoJ raised interest rates and cut Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases in July 2024, coinciding with a dovish Fed policy stance. The monetary policy decision triggered a yen carry trade unwind, sending USD/JPY from 161 levels in early July to sub-140 in September.

XRP tumbled 34.5%, from $0.6591 on July 31, 2024, to $0.4320 on August 5, 2024, as traders unwound positions in risk assets.

The threat of a yen carry trade unwind exposes XRP to further losses, supporting a bearish short-term price outlook.

XRP-Spot ETF Inflows Cushion Downside Risk

Institutional investors seemed undaunted at the prospect of a yen carry trade unwind, potentially considering a longer-term outlook.

XRP-spot ETFs reported $18.99 million in net inflows on Wednesday, December 17, following $8.54 million of net inflows on the previous day. Significantly, the US XRP-spot ETF market extended its inflows streak to 23 consecutive days, with total net inflows of $1.03 billion since launch. Figures for Thursday, December 18, are out later this morning.

XRP has fallen 22% since the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) launched on November 14. Delays to the Market Structure Bill, a hawkish Fed rate path, and fears of a yen carry trade unwind weighed on sentiment.

Market Structure Bill Edges Closer to a Senate Vote

XRP-spot ETF inflows and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation set the stage for a bullish 2026.

On Thursday, December 18, White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sachs shared an update on the Market Structure Bill, stating:

“We had a great call today with Chairman Senator Tim Scott and John Boozman, who confirmed that a markup for Clarity is coming in January. Thanks to their leadership, as well as Republican French Hill and Congressman GT in the House, we are closer than ever to passing the landmark crypto market structure legislation that President Trump has called for. We look forward to finishing the job in January!”

XRP remains particularly sensitive to US legislative developments, having been exposed to the SEC’s previous regulation by enforcement mantra. Clear rules of the road would remove the threat of future SEC enforcement, given the court ruling that XRP is not a security.

For context, XRP soared 14.69% on July 17, 2025, after the House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate.

Medium- and Long-Term Outlook Remains Constructive

Strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and updates from Capitol Hill on crypto legislation support a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) and longer-term (8-12 weeks) price outlook.

In the near term, the BoJ monetary policy decision and neutral rate announcement will remain the key driver. However, the fallout from a yen carry trade unwind could be days rather than weeks, limiting the effects of an unwind on the medium-term outlook.

Considering the current market dynamics, the short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook remains bearish. Meanwhile, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) and longer-term (8-12 weeks) outlooks are bullish, with price targets of $2.5 and $3.0, respectively.

Downside Risks to the Bullish Scenario

Several scenarios could unravel the bullish medium- and long-term outlooks. These include:

• The Bank of Japan raises interest rates and signals a neutral rate of between 1.5% and 2%.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings would likely reduce interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• US Senate opposes the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These scenarios would likely send XRP toward $1.5, supporting the bearish short-term outlook.

Nevertheless, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs, increased XRP adoption, and the passing of crypto-friendly legislation support a longer-term move to $3.0.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bearish as fundamentals and the technicals align. Meanwhile, the medium- to longer-term outlooks are constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP fell 2.97% on Thursday, December 18, following the previous day’s 3.49% loss, closing at $1.8077. The token faced heavier losses than the broader crypto market, which declined 1.04%.

This week’s pullback to $1.8 left XRP well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.1562.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4233.
• Resistance levels: $2, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Looking at the daily chart, a break below the $1.75 support level would expose the $1.5 support level and reinforce the bearish short-term outlook.

However, a break above the $2 psychological level would open the door to testing the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal.

A bullish trend reversal would indicate a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb toward the 200-day EMA and $2.5. A breakout above the EMAs would reinforce the medium-term outlook, and a longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.0 price target.

Fundamental Indicators: BoJ, Fed, and ETF Demand

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• March Fed rate cut bets.
• The BoJ’s interest rate decisions and the neutral interest rate.

Bullish Structure: What Happens if XRP Reclaims $2.0?

Failure to break above the $2.0 level would leave the $1.75 support level in play. A drop below $1.75 would expose the lower trendline. Breaching the lower trendline would reaffirm a bearish trend reversal.

By contrast, a break above the $2.0 handle would pave the way toward the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would reinforce the bullish medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.

However, rejection at the $2.0 psychological level and a drop below the lower trendline would invalidate the bullish medium-term outlook.

Outlook: $2.0 Remains the Pivot Level

Looking ahead, the BoJ’s monetary policy decision and neutral rate, and XRP-spot ETF flows will influence near-term trends.

XRP-spot ETF outflows are likely to exacerbate the effects of a hawkish BoJ if institutional investors react adversely to the BoJ’s policy stance.

To summarize, a hawkish BoJ rate hike would support a near-term drop to $1.75. A break below $1.75 would affirm the near-term bearish trend reversal.

However, resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs and the Market Structure Bill’s progress support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. A March Fed rate cut and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would affirm the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.0.