XRP News Today: ETF Flows Weaken as Bearish Signals Intensify

XRP–spot ETF hype fades, hitting XRP for the second session, with early inflows lagging BTC-spot ETFs by a considerable margin. Crucially, technical indicators are also bearish after the November death cross.

The combination of bearish indicators and weak inflows into XRP-spot ETFs exposes the token to further losses. XRP whales reportedly offloaded $4 billion worth in November, tilting the supply-demand balance in favor of the bears.

However, the Fed’s plan to end quantitative tightening and rising bets on a December rate cut have prevented heavier losses.

XRP slipped below $2.20. Weak ETF inflows and institutional hesitation weighed on sentiment. In my view, this pullback exposes the risk of a near-term (3-4 weeks) drop toward $1.82.

Below, we examine the drivers behind the decline, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) catalysts, and the technical levels traders should watch.

Sentiment Split: Bearish Near-Term, Hopeful Medium-Term

While the near-term outlook looks bearish, the medium- to longer-term outlook is more favorable for the bulls. Several key price catalysts, including spot ETF flows, a Senate vote on the Market Structure Bill, and the OCC’s decision on Ripple’s chartered-banking license application, will be key.

XRP’s Rally Stalls as Headwinds Gather Momentum

The highly anticipated launch of XRP-spot ETFs sent the token to an all-time high of $3.66 (on Binance) in July. However, market conditions turned bearish after the SEC delayed the launch of XRP-spot ETFs despite the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case.

Other headwinds for XRP through the third quarter included US-China trade tensions, the MSCI consultation on the listing of digital asset treasury companies (DATs), and falling bets on a Fed rate cut.

ETF Disappointment: Demand Falls Short of Expectations

In the fourth quarter, markets have revived bets on a December Fed rate cut, and US-China trade tensions have subsided. However, XRP remains in negative territory as two key price drivers weigh on demand. XRP-spot ETFs have seen modest inflows despite expectations of pent-up demand translating into record inflows in the first month of trading. XRP-spot ETF issuers have reported $643.92 million in net inflows since launch.

BlackRock’s (BLK) absence from the ETF market has been telling, given Canary XRP ETF’s (XRPC) top ranking, with net inflows of $334.59 million. For context, BTC-spot ETFs saw $858.3 million in net inflows during the first two days of trading despite Grayscale Bitcoin Trust bleeding over $500 million.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has reported net inflows of $62.68 billion since launch, while GBTC has seen $25.02 billion in outflows. A BlackRock absence from the BTC-spot ETF market would likely have led to net outflows rather than total net inflows of $57.64 billion.

Institutional Doubt: BlackRock Hesitation Sends a Signal

XRP-spot ETFs face near-term uncertainty, given the broader crypto market’s fourth-quarter sell-off. Institutional investors may also view BlackRock’s decision to delay an iShares XRP Trust as a sign of no confidence in the longer-term prospects for XRP-spot ETFs.

MSCI’s DAT Review Adds a Shadow Over Q4

While ETF flows disappoint, the MSCI’s consultation paper questioning the listing of DATs on indices remains another headwind. Hopes that blue-chip companies will build XRP holdings for treasury reserve purposes contributed to XRP’s June-July breakout to new highs. However, listed companies will likely delay plans to hold the token as a treasury reserve asset until January.

The MSCI will decide on whether to delist DATs on January 15, 2026, a potentially make-or break decision, given supply-demand dynamics. XRP plunged to a low of $0.7773 in response to the consultation paper before reclaiming the $2.6 handle. Traders have remained cautious since, with XRP briefly dropping below the $2.0 psychological support level before it steadied.

Downside in Focus: Risks Mount as Key Decisions Loom

The downside risks from the MSCI delisting DATs and weak demand for XRP-spot ETFs support the bearish near-term outlook. In my opinion, XRP could fall back toward the November low of $1.8239. Losses would likely be heavier if lawmakers block the Market Structure bill and the OCC rejects Ripple’s application for a US-chartered banking license.

US legislative developments will likely have a greater impact on XRP price trends than the OCC’s banking-license decision. The Senate is likely to pass the Market Structure bill, unlocking the crypto door for a broader investor base. A crypto-friendly regulatory landscape would benefit spot ETFs and XRP. Demand may then outstrip supply, supporting a bullish medium to longer-term outlook.

In my opinion, protecting the downside beyond the November low of $1.8239 is key for long positions, given the risk of an extended drop to $1.5.

Bulls Look Further Ahead: A Perfect Storm of Catalysts?

Upside risks included a surge in demand for XRP-spot ETFs, BlackRock launching an iShares XRP Trust, MSCI retaining DATs, and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill. These events would set up a perfect storm for XRP.

Given XRP’s reaction to the House passing the Market Structure Bill in July, a breakout above the $3.66 ATH is likely. So to recap, short-term bearish but bullish over the medium to longer-term.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP declined 0.84% on Friday, November 28, following the previous day’s 1.03% loss, closing at $2.1816. The token underperformed the broader market, which fell 0.45%.

Friday’s pullback left XRP trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.3559.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.5148.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price events include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily inflows.
• Blue-chip companies’ positions on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI stance on DATs.

Bearish Scenario: What Happens if $2.0 Breaks?

• XRP-spot ETFs report net outflows.
• The US Senate delays crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• MSCI announces plans to delist DATs.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.

These bearish events could push XRP toward $2.0. A drop below $2.0 would bring the $1.9112 support level. If breached, the lower trendline and the November 21 low of $1.8239 would be the next key support levels.

Outlook: $2.0 Becomes the Battleground

XRP faces a key test in the coming sessions, with XRP-spot ETF flows likely to influence near-term trends. Next week, the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill will also affect sentiment.

While spot ETF flows and legislation developments are pivotal, traders should also monitor US economic reports and Fed speakers. Upbeat data and fading bets on a December Fed rate cut could add to the bearish dynamic that has left XRP at sub-$2.2.