XRP News Today: ETF Slowdown Meets Fed Cut—Can XRP Stay Bullish?

A slump in XRP-spot ETF inflows on Tuesday, December 9, set the tone for the Wednesday, December 10, session, with investors likely treading cautiously ahead of the B rate decision.

The US Federal Reserve did not disappoint, cutting interest rates on Wednesday, December 10, despite sticky inflation and the absence of up-to-date economic reports. Traders reacted positively to the widely anticipated rate cut. XRP briefly rallyied to a post-announcement high of $2.1097.

However, the FOMC economic projections and dot plot signaled a pause in further monetary policy easing, sending XRP to a session low of $2.0363 before steadying.

Despite Wednesday’s pullback, resilient institutional demand and legislative developments support a bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

XRP-Spot ETF Inflows Slow Sharply Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

The US XRP-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $8.73 million on Tuesday, December 9, down from $38.04 million the previous day.

Significantly, Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) reported zero net flows for December 9, a first zero for a behemoth US asset manager, ranked #19 on the ETF Issuer League Table by assets under management. XRPZ saw $31.7 million in net inflows the previous day, suggesting institutional investors turned off the tap amid uncertainty about the Fed’s post-December rate path.

Notably, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $151.9 million on December 9, outperforming the US XRP-spot ETF market by inflows for the second time in seven sessions.

For context, the US BTC-spot ETF market has seen net inflows of $3.8 million in December, trailing the US XRP-spot ETF’s inflows of $277.5 million. This week’s inflows have yet to reflect a sharp jump in investor demand for crypto despite Vanguard opening the doors for brokerage accounts to invest in crypto-spot ETFs.

Market Structure Bill Roadblocks Challenge Bullish Outlook

The prospect of a broadening investor base sets up a bullish outlook for XRP. However, demand would likely hinge on progress toward crypto-friendly US legislation.

Crypto in America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett shared the latest developments on Capitol Hill, stating:

“Democrats negotiating the crypto market-structure bill say they’ve accepted “significant portions” of US Senate Banking Committee’s RFIA text, but the GOP’s December 4th offer still misses key principles Dems are seeking. Their three-page counteroffer, a copy of which was sent to me, lays out their asks on token classification, illicit finance, ethics, and the GENIUS Act’s stablecoin-yield restrictions.”

For context, XRP rallied 14.69% on Jul 17 and climbed to an all-time high of $3.66 on July 18 as traders reacted to the US House of Representatives passing the Market Structure Bill to the Senate.

However, the token has plunged 44% from its July ATH. Delays to the Market Structure Bill, due to the US government shutdown, have contributed to the reversal, suggesting that bipartisan support could trigger an XRP breakout.

Fed Signals Pause

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.50% to 3.75% target range on December 10, boosting demand for XRP. However, the FOMC economic projections and dot plot signaled sticky inflation and a less dovish Fed rate path, weighing on XRP and the broader crypto market.

Committee members expected inflation to remain above the Fed’s 2% target until 2028. On this basis, the dot plot showed a single rate cut in 2026 and one further adjustment in 2027, more hawkish than September’s projection for two rate cuts in 2026.

The more hawkish Fed rate path overshadowed the resumption of quantitative easing (QE). The Fed will resume buying Treasuries on Friday, December 12, after ending QT on December 1. Typically, QE adds liquidity, boosting demand for risk assets.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Hinged on Spot ETFs and Regulatory Headlines

On Thursday, December 11, traders will continue to react to the FOMC Economic Projections and the more hawkish dot plot.

However, several tailwinds could shift sentiment and support on XRP’s short- to medium-term price outlook. These include:

• XRP-spot ETFs report strong inflows as the investor base broadens.
• The Market Structure bill receives bipartisan support and makes progress toward a Senate floor vote.
• OCC grants Ripple a US-chartered banking license.

In my view, these potential tailwinds support a near-term (1-4 weeks) climb to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) return to $2.5.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

While the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, several scenarios could alter the outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan hikes rates, signals more in 2026, and ends QE, triggering a yen carry trade unwind.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings would likely reduce interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• US Senate opposes the Market Structure Bill.
• OCC rejects Ripple’s application for a US-chartered banking license.
• XRP-spot ETFs see heavy outflows.

These events would likely push XRP below $2, exposing the November low of $1.82.

However, in my opinion, XRP-spot ETF inflows, a broader investor base, and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation support a longer-term move toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP slid 3.14% on Wednesday, December 10, reversing the previous day’s 1.64% gain to close at $2.0412. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which dropped 0.74%.

The token snapped a three-day winning streak and remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The EMAs signaled a bearish bias. However, fundamentals are shifting from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.2508.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4660.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Avoiding a drop below the $2.0 psychological support level would open the door to testing the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would bring the $2.35 resistance level into play. Importantly, a break above the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would support a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise to the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Interest, ETF Demand, and Legislation

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• Blue-chip companies’ positions on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI’s decision on DAT listings.
• The BoJ’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance.

Bullish Structure: What Happens if $2.0 Holds?

Avoiding the lower trendline and $2.0 would enable the bulls to target the $2.2 level and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would align with the bullish medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.

However, a drop below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

Outlook: Breaking $2.0 Support Key to Short-Term Outlook

XRP-spot ETFs will come under increased scrutiny after tailwinds turned to headwinds mid-week. Delays to the Market Structure Bill, Tuesday’s ETF inflows, and the less dovish Fed rate path would weigh on sentiment.

However, overall strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and growing bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill would likely change the narrative.

In summary, strong XRP-spot ETF inflows and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation support a short-term move to $2.35. Increasing XRP utility and a Senate vote passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and the longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.