XRP News Today: Government Shutdown Sparks Demand, Bulls Eye $3 Mark

Government Shutdown Boosts XRP Demand

XRP traders braced for the first US government shutdown since 2018-2019, during Trump’s first term as US President. US lawmakers failed to reach a deal, with a 55-45 vote against the continuing resolution to fund the government, shuttering government offices.

Why Traders Need to Consider a US Government Shutdown

The 2018-2019 shutdown was the longest in US history, lasting 35 days. Notably, XRP rallied 28% in the first first three days of the shutdown before resuming the bear run.

Fast forward to 2025, and economists expect the impasse on Capitol Hill to be relatively short-lived, lifting demand for risk assets, including XRP.

XRP-Spot ETF Launches on Ice

Nevertheless, the government shutdown has implications for XRP and the broader crypto market. Notably, crypto-spot ETFs, currently awaiting SEC approval, could face launch delays.

NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci commented on the effects of a shutdown on the crypto-spot ETF market, stating:

“Looks like a prolonged government shutdown would definitely impact the launch of new spot crypto ETFs… ETF Cryptober might be on hold for a bit.”

Geraci shared the SEC’s ‘Operations Plan Under a Lapse in Appropriations & Government Shutdown’. It stated:

“The SEC will not review and approve applications for registration by entities (e.g., Investment advisers, broker-dealers, transfer agents, nationally recognized statistical rating organizations, investment companies, and municipal advisors) or with respect to new financial products; review and approve self-regulatory organization rule changes…”

Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF was set to launch on Thursday, October 2. Although current price action suggests traders remain unconcerned, prolonged delays could shift sentiment. Unless the SEC plans to launch all crypto-spot ETFs simultaneously to avoid a first-to-market advantage, the first XRP-spot ETF deadline remains October 18, and is unlikely to be affected by the shutdown.

ETF Launch Timeline: Key Dates Traders Must Watch

Expectations of a short-lived US government shutdown leave pending XRP-spot ETF launches on schedule. The final decision deadlines for the seven XRP-spot ETFs are as follows:

• Grayscale: October 18.
• 21Shares: October 19.
• Bitwise: October 20.
• Canary Capital: October 24.
• CoinShares: October 25.
• WisdomTree: October 25.
• Franklin Templeton: November 14.

However, ETF issuers could potentially launch the spot ETFs sooner, given that the SEC approved the Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based Trust shares. This week, ETF issuers responded to an SEC request to withdraw their 19b-4s, ending the SEC’s review under the previously required process.

While ETF issuers no longer need to file a 19b-4, the issuers still file S-1s, which the SEC must approve. The second step exposes XRP-spot ETFs to potential delays. While most economists expect the shutdown to be short-lived, a prolonged standoff could still delay XRP-spot ETF approvals.

For context, the SEC approved the Bitcoin-spot ETF S-1 filings on the final decision deadline date of January 10, 2024. All ten BTC-spot ETFs launched on January 11, 2024.

XRP-spot ETF issuers filed amended S-1 statements in August, likely in response to dialogue with the SEC. These amended S-1 statements mean that the SEC remains the final hurdle for an XRP-spot ETF launch.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Reclaim the $3 Mark?

XRP rallied 3.57% on Wednesday, October 1, reversing the previous day’s 1.26% loss to close at $2.9479. The token tracked the broader market (3.88%), nearing the psychological $3 level.

Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support: $2.8, followed by $2.5.
• Resistance: $3, $3.2, and the all-time high at $3.66.

In the near term, several key events could dictate price trends:

• XRP ETF flows.
• Spot ETF developments: Listing and launches or delays of crypto-spot ETFs, and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies acquire XRP for treasury reserve purposes.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related developments may also influence sentiment.

Catalysts & Scenarios

The combination of ETF flows, regulatory developments, and demand from blue-chip companies could determine whether XRP tests support levels or breaks down resistance.

Bearish Scenario

• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs register outflows, and BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• SEC delays XRP-spot ETF launches.
• Setbacks or resistance to crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT retains its market dominance in global remittances, curbing Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.8. A break below $2.8 would expose the $2.5 support level.

Bullish Scenario

• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong inflows.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves the S-1s for XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill passes the Senate.
• SWIFT loses market share of global remittances to Ripple.

These events could drive XRP toward $3. A breakout above $3 could pave the way toward the $3.2 level.

The Big Question: Will the Government Shutdown Test Sentiment?

Will the US government avoid a lengthy shutdown? The launch of crypto-spot ETFs hinges on the Senate’s upcoming vote to continue funding. A reopening may enable the SEC to greenlight the crypto-spot ETFs, potentially boosting demand for XRP.

Strong institutional appetite for XRP-spot ETFs could bring the record high of $3.66 into play. Meanwhile, the Market Structure Bill’s progress remains critical. Traders should closely monitor developments on Capitol Hill.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.