XRP News Today: Market Structure Bill Influences ETF Outlook and Price Path; BTC Hovers

Market Structure Bill Takes Center Stage after Summer Recess

XRP continues facing selling pressure as the SEC drags its feet on approving spot XRP ETFs. With no SEC approvals expected until October, the focus will turn to Capitol Hill and crypto legislation.

Before the summer recess, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law. The Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) is the next crucial crypto legislation for US lawmakers to vote on. In July, the House of Representatives passed the bill, leaving the Senate to decide its fate.

Coinbase (COIN) Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal commented:

“To assure that we never again endure such an era again, the Senate needs to join the House in passing a market structure bill—now.”

Why Do Traders Need to Worry About the Market Structure Bill?

The Market Structure Bill would provide a much-needed crypto regulatory framework and grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission greater oversight. If the bill passes, it would drive the Trump administration’s bid to make the US the global leader in the digital asset space.

XRP is particularly sensitive to legislative developments, given Ripple’s four-and-a-half-year legal battle with the SEC. The token soared 58% to a record high of $3.6606 (Binance) on July 18  after Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse gave testimony on crypto legislation.

Notably, the CLARITY Act provides a framework for lawmakers to classify crypto as digital commodities or investment contracts/securities. It would crucially remove the potential threat of an anti-crypto US administration reviving former SEC Chair Gensler’s regulation through enforcement mantra. This legal certainty may boost crypto adoption within the US.

XRP-Spot ETFs Key to Supply-Demand Balance

Additionally, if passed, the bill could accelerate the approval of pending spot XRP ETF applications.

Amicus curiae attorney John E. Deaton commented on the significance of an XRP-spot ETF market, stating:

“Whether people hate it or not, I predict the inflows will surprise many.”

XRP-spot ETFs could materially influence the token’s supply-demand balance. Strong inflows, mirroring the BTC and ETH-spot ETF markets, would likely send XRP to new record highs.

Spot ETF inflows sent BTC to a record high of $123,731 (August 14), and ETH to a fresh high of $4,958 (August 24).

XRP Price Outlook: Scenarios for Bulls and Bears

Can XRP snap out of its bear trap? XRP fell 1.52% on Sunday, August 31, following Saturday’s 0.02% decline, closing at $2.7763. Sunday’s drop extended the token’s losing streak to five sessions, leaving XRP down 8.15% for August. The token underperformed the broader market, which dropped 0.45% to a total crypto market cap of $3.71 trillion.

In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:

• XRP-spot ETF headlines.
• XRP Treasury Reserve Asset adoption.
• Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application.
• SWIFT-related updates.
• Market Structure Bill headlines.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Legislative setbacks, weak Treasury Reserve Asset demand, OCC declines Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, lawmakers protect SWIFT, or the SEC disapproves XRP-spot ETFs. These factors may push XRP toward $2.5.
• Bullish Scenario: XRP-spot ETF approvals, OCC approves US-chartered bank license, rising XRP Treasury Reserve Asset demand, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or SWIFT loses share of global remittance business to Ripple. These factors could send XRP above its record high of $3.6606 (Binance).

Investors expect October to be crucial, likely dictating whether XRP breaks out or stalls. However, crypto legislation, global macroeconomic developments, and Bitcoin price action will further influence investor sentiment.

Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.

Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000 in a Crucial Week for the Fed

While XRP extended its losses amid ongoing delays to spot ETF launches, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped ahead of a crucial week for the global markets and traders alike.

Last week’s US Personal Income and Outlays Report raised questions about the Fed aggressively cutting interest rates. The US Core PCE Price Index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, signaling an inflation heat-up. July’s numbers showed inflation moving further from the Fed’s former 2% target. This week, US labor market data could dictate the timeline for Fed rate cuts.

What Does the US Jobs Report Mean for Traders?

US JOLTs job openings (September 3), ADP employment change (September 4), and initial jobless claims (September 4) will influence sentiment. However, the US Jobs Report (September 5) will be the main event. Stronger labor market data could temper expectations of a Fed rate cut, weighing on BTC. On the other hand, a softer labor market may fuel speculation about aggressive Fed rate cuts, potentially boosting demand for BTC and altcoins.

Traders need to track US BTC-spot ETF flows and eye the crucial $100,000 support level.

BTC-Spot ETF Snaps Monthly Winning Streak

In August, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net outflows of $0.749 billion, snapping a four-month inflow streak. Notably, the ETF market was in monthly surplus on August 14, lifting BTC to its record high before outflows weighed on the supply-demand balance.

Institutional demand remains crucial for BTC’s price trajectory, spotlighting BTC-spot ETFs.

BTC Price Outlook: US Jobs Data, the Fed, and Spot ETFs in Focus

BTC dropped 0.57% on Sunday, August 31, reversing Saturday’s 0.42% gain to close at $108,172. Additionally, Sunday’s loss contributed to a 6.51% monthly decline in August, snapping a four-month winning streak.

Looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price outlook. These include:

• Fed speakers: hawkish or dovish.
• US labor market data.
• Legislative developments on Capitol Hill.
• BTC-spot ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Legislative setbacks, strong US labor market data, hawkish Fed rhetoric, or ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC toward the psychological $100,000 support level.
• Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, softer US jobs data, dovish Fed signals, and ETF inflows. In this case, BTC could target the record high of $123,731.

Key Market Drivers: Data, Regulation, and ETF Flows

Traders should closely monitor the following key events to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:

• XRP-spot ETF developments.
• Legislative developments: The CLARITY Act.
• US economic data: Supports rate cuts or tempers expectations of a Fed pivot.
• ETF market flows: Flow trends crucial for BTC’s supply-demand balance.

See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head in the coming months as regulatory and economic risks evolve.