XRP News Today: Relief Rally Builds, But Capitol Hill Risks Linger

Crypto Market Rallies as Fears of a Full-Blown US-China Trade Ease

A weekend thaw in US-China tensions sparked a crypto relief rally, propelling XRP back above the $2.5 mark after Friday’s flash crash.

Beijing reportedly clarified its announcement regarding restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, raising hopes that the US and China could avert a full-blown trade war. The Kobeissi Letter reported:

“China says new export controls on rare earths are NOT a ban on exports, and applications that “meet regulations” will be approved. China says they are willing to strengthen dialogue to “better maintain stability of global industrial and supply chains.”

President Trump added to the market relief, stating:

“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The USA wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

The US administration and China are in de-escalation mode ahead of the APEC Summit, starting on October 31. President Trump and President Xi will meet at the Summit amid hopes for a trade deal.

The escalation on October 10 sent XRP briefly to $0.7773 before rebounding.

Easing trade tensions may provide short-term relief, but the unresolved US government shutdown remains a critical headwind.

US Government Shutdown: A Persistent Headwind

The US Senate impasse continued through the weekend, extending the US government shutdown to 13 days on Monday, October 13. Crucially, the next Senate vote is unlikely before Tuesday, October 14. A prolonged government shutdown could weigh on XRP and the broader market.

Why Capitol Hill Matters for Traders

The SEC has been operating with a skeleton staff since the government shutdown, delaying the approval of the recently refiled S-1s for XRP-spot ETFs. Markets have reacted negatively to a potential delay of institutional money inflows. XRP dropped 1.5% from October 1 to October 9, before the flash crash, and is down 11% from October 1 to date, despite the easing US-China trade tensions.

Betting platform Kalshi predicts the US government shutdown will last 33.4 days, edging close to the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019, the longest in US history. XRP-spot ETFs are unlikely to receive an SEC greenlight until November if the US government shutdown extends beyond this week.

In addition to delayed XRP-spot ETF approvals, a prolonged shutdown may trigger stagflation fears and test buyer demand for risk assets. The 2018-2019 shutdown shaved 0.4 percentage points off US GDP. With elevated inflation and a cooling labor market, a sharp economic slowdown would likely weigh on retail and institutional demand for XRP.

On the other hand, XRP could retarget the psychological $3 level if the Senate passes a stopgap funding bill in the coming days.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Hold $2.5?

XRP rallied 6.1% on Sunday, October 12, following the previous day’s 0.45% gain, closing at $2.5317. The token outperformed the broader market, which climbed 5.57%. Despite reclaiming the $2.5 handle, XRP continued to trade below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.5, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6346 and the 50-day EMA at $2.8577.
• Resistance levels: $2.7 and $3.0.

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key scenarios could influence near-term price trends:

• US-China trade developments.
• The US government shutdown.
• XRP ETF headlines (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies show interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.5

• BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US Senate impasse continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• Lawmakers challenge crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT retains market share in the global remittance market, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP below $2.5, exposing XRP to the psychological $2 level.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3

• US and China trade tensions ease.
• Senate passage of a stopgap funding bill.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies buy XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses global remittance business market share to Ripple.

These bullish scenarios could drive XRP to $2.7, enabling the bulls to target the psychological $3 level.

The Big Question: Will XRP Reclaim $3?

This week could define whether XRP reclaims $3 or slides into a new bearish cycle.

Easing US-China trade tensions could send XRP toward $3. However, the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision and developments on Capitol Hill will be crucial for price trends.

An end to the shutdown and an October Fed rate cut, coupled with support for a December rate cut, could send XRP above $3. Furthermore, the launch of XRP-spot ETFs may drive the token to new highs.

All eyes now turn to the Fed and Capitol Hill—two factors that could determine whether XRP reclaims $3 or slides back toward $2.

Traders should closely monitor developments on Capitol Hill, US-China trade developments, and Fed commentary, given market sensitivity to last week’s events.