XRP News Today: Tariffs and Spot ETF Delays Threaten Uptober Rally

XRP Resilience Tested as Shutdown and Tariff Risks Mount

XRP bucked the broader market trend on Saturday, October 11, as the US government shutdown and escalating tariff tensions weighed on sentiment.

The token briefly climbed to a high of $3.1027 on Thursday, October 2, after news of the US government shutdown hit the wires. However, the upside was short-lived, with an extended shutdown likely to delay the launch of XRP-spot ETFs beyond their original final decision deadlines. The token dropped to a low of $2.7755 on Thursday, October 9, underscoring trader concerns about the potential effects of a lengthy shutdown.

Betting platform Kalshi currently predicts the US government shutdown will last 31.9 days, soaring from 21.2 days on October 10. Furthermore, the chances of the shutdown extending beyond October 31 sit at 53%. A November reopening would mean that six out of the seven XRP-spot ETF launch dates would be affected by the government shutdown. The delays would likely expose XRP to heightened volatility in the absence of sticky institutional money.

US-China Trade Tensions Add to Market Uncertainty

While the potential delay to XRP-spot ETF launches is significant, the fear of a full-blown US-China trade war has added to the investor unease. XRP plunged to a Friday, October 10, low of $0.7773—its lowest level since November 15—before rebounding above the $2.3 level.

President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods on Friday, raising fears of a full-blown US-China trade war. The escalation could affect the global economy, triggering a flight-to-safety.

The tariffs will take effect on Saturday, November 1, aligning with the conclusion of the APEC Summit. The APEC Summit and developments on Capitol Hill will be crucial for near-term price trends, given XRP’s sharp pullback since October 2.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Break $2.4 Resistance?

XRP rose 0.45% on Saturday, October 11, partially reversing the previous day’s 15.3% loss to close at $2.3861. The token outperformed the broader market, which dropped 1.39%. Despite steadying, XRP continued to trade below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.3, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Technical Resistance Levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6338 and the 50-day EMA at $2.8637
• Resistance levels: $2.4 and $3.0.

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key events could dictate near-term price trends:

• US-China trade headlines.
• The US Senate’s stopgap funding bill vote is potentially on Tuesday, October 14.
• XRP ETF news (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies signal appetite for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also dictate near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario

• BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US Senate fails to pass a stopgap funding bill for another week, delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• Lawmakers block crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies downplay interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT retains market share in the global remittance market, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP below $2.3, exposing the psychological $2 level.

Bullish Scenario

• US and China ease trade tensions.
• US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
• BlackRock submits an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies adopt XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses global remittance business market share to Ripple.

These bullish events could send XRP to $2.4, opening the door to testing the $2.8 level. A sustained move through $2.84 could enable the bulls to target $3.

The Big Question: Will XRP Keep Uptober Hopes Alive?

What began as an optimistic Uptober has turned into a cautionary tale for leveraged crypto investors. The Kobeissi Letter noted Friday’s crypto market flash crash, stating:

“Longs were liquidated at a 7:1 ratio to shorts, also historically high. This means that the vast majority (likely 80%+) of the 1.6 million traders who were liquidated were levered long.”

While Friday’s sharp sell-off may sideline traders, multiple upside catalysts remain in play. A resolution to the US government shutdown, progress on XRP-spot ETF approvals, and dovish Fed signals could revive bullish momentum.

All eyes now turn to Capitol Hill and US-China trade talks—events that could determine whether XRP reclaims $3 or faces a deeper correction.