XRP News Today: Trade War Triggers Flash Crash as ETF Hopes Offer a Lifeline

Flash Crash: Full-Blown US-China Trade War Overshadows Spot-ETF Optimism

US President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese shipments, triggering a flash crash. XRP plunged to a session low of $0.7745 before reclaiming the $2.3 handle.

President Trump reacted to China’s plans to introduce export controls on rare earth minerals, effective November 1, stating:

“Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.”

The effective date is crucial given that President Trump and China’s President Xi are to meet at the APEC Summit, October 31 to November 1.

Notably, XRP and the broader market’s rebound from session lows suggest optimism over the US and China avoiding a full-blown trade war. However, traders will likely be nervous in the coming days. Further measures from China and tit-for-tat tariff hikes could dampen optimism for a potential Trump-Xi deal.

Beyond the crypto market, the Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 3.56%, while gold gained 1%.

While a full-blown US-China trade war hit risk assets, the expected launch of XRP-spot ETFs provided much-needed support.

XRP-Spot ETF Market Launch Hinges on US Senate Vote

XRP-spot ETF issuers continued to file S-1 amendments on Friday, October 10, signaling an imminent launch. Bitwise Asset Management filed an S-1 amendment for the Bitwise XRP ETF.

Since approving the Generic Listing Standards (GLS) for Commodity-Based Trust shares, the SEC must approve the S-1s for issuers to launch spot ETFs. ETF issuers previously withdrew their 19b-4s at the SEC’s request, removing the review process and final decision deadlines.

The US government shutdown will extend to Tuesday, October 14, and potentially further. The Senate is due to return on October 14, with 60 votes needed to pass a stopgap funding bill. A government reopening would likely raise expectations of imminent ETF approvals, potentially triggering a wave of institutional demand.

The US government shutdown and latest tariff announcement have sent XRP crashing from $3.1027 (October 2) to $2.3628 (October 11), a 24% loss. Analysts expect XRP to strike new highs on the launch of the spot ETFs.

An XRP-spot ETF launch could come at a pivotal time, given Trump’s recent Executive Order permitting 401(k) investors to access alternative assets, such as crypto.

Financial advisors are also opening their doors to crypto. Vanguard recently reversed its stance, with plans to offer crypto access through its brokerage platform. On Friday, October 10, Morgan Stanley expanded its investment offerings to include BTC-spot ETFs, underscoring growing demand for crypto.

The US banking giant will reportedly offer crypto funds to all clients. Previously, the bank restricted access to investors with aggressive risk tolerances and at least $1.5 million in assets.

Vanguard and Morgan Stanley’s shifts in policy further legitimize digital assets, potentially boosting adoption.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: US Government Shutdown in Focus

XRP tumbled 15.3% on Friday, October 10, following the previous day’s 2.64% loss, closing at $2.3753. The token underperformed the broader market, which slid 9.38% and traded below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages.

Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support levels: $2.3, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Resistance levels: $2.5, $2.8, and $3.0.

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key scenarios could drive near-term price trends:

• US-China trade developments.
• The US Senate’s stopgap funding bill vote.
• XRP ETF developments (delays or launches), and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also dictate near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario

• Full-blown US-China trade war.
• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs record outflows, and BlackRock downplays plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US government shutdown extends beyond October 14, delaying XRP-spot ETFs.
• Lawmakers challenge crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies avoid XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT retains market share in the global remittance market, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could drag XRP toward $2.3, exposing the $2 support level.

Bullish Scenario

• China and the US de-escalate trade tensions.
• US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong inflows.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC greenlights XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses market share to Ripple.

These bullish scenarios could send XRP to $2.5, enabling the bulls to target $2.8. A sustained move through $2.84 could bring $3 into play.

The Big Question: Will XRP-Spot ETFs Launch in October?

Despite October’s meltdown, several price catalysts could send XRP to new highs. Spot ETF launches and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill could fuel broader demand from retail and institutional investors. However, extended delays to XRP-spot ETF launches and legislative setbacks would likely weigh on sentiment.

Given the market focus on spot ETFs, an October launch will be crucial. If the government reopens on Wednesday, October 15, the SEC could potentially approve the S-1s within 10 days. However, if the shutdown extends beyond October 20, issuers may face delays until November.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.