XRP News Today: Will Fed Optimism Outweigh Shutdown Risks?

Fed Rate Cut Bets Lift Sentiment as Government Shutdown Continues

Markets are betting the Fed will cut rates, but a divided Senate could upend those expectations.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes from September signaled multiple interest rate cuts, lifting XRP and the broader crypto market. According to the Minutes from the September meeting:

“Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of the year.”

However, the Minutes revealed diverging labor market and inflation risk trends, underscoring the Fed’s precarious rate path. Risks to employment and the labor market tilted to the downside, while risks to inflation were to the upside.

Policymakers’ stance on inflation and the labor market had little impact on October Fed rate cut expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut slipped from 95.1% on October 7 to 94.1% on October 8. Meanwhile, the chances of a 25-basis-point December rate cut fell from 82.0% to 80.1%.

XRP gained 1.55% on September 17 in response to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut, underscoring XRP’s sensitivity to changes in Fed policy.

While the Minutes bolstered demand for risk assets, the US Senate impasse continued as a sixth Senate vote fell short of the 60 needed to pass a stopgap funding bill. An extended shutdown would delay key US economic data releases, deepening uncertainty around the Fed’s policy outlook.

XRP-Spot ETF Launches on Pause

While markets continue betting on multiple Fed rate cuts, the US government shutdown is expected to delay the launch of XRP-spot ETFs. XRP initially rose to a high of $3.1027 on October 2 before sliding to a low of $2.8335 on October 8, reflecting the potential delay to an influx of institutional money.

The absence of XRP-spot ETFs left the token trailing Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which have benefited from significant institutional demand. US BTC-spot ETF issuers have net inflows of $2.1 billion this week, with ETH-spot ETF issuers reporting inflows of $523 million. For context, BTC and ETH are up 0.17% and 0.18%, respectively, this week, while XRP is down 3.32%.

Given XRP’s divergence from BTC, ETH, and the broader crypto market, the US government’s reopening could be crucial. A prolonged shutdown would likely further delay XRP-spot ETF approvals and weigh on sentiment.

However, growing interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset could be another source of institutional demand.

Institutional Demand: A New Catalyst

Reliance Group (RELI) became the second Nasdaq-listed public company to select XRP as a treasury reserve asset. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan shared the press release, stating:

“Reliance Group Global has added XRP to its digital asset treasury. The rumor is XRP valued at $17 million. The announcement, which was filed by the company with the SEC on 30 September 2025, discloses that the company had added XRP to its existing treasury holdings that include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano.”

Notably, Reliance Group highlighted XRP’s key attributes in its SEC filing, citing speed, low cost, liquidity, banking utility, scalability, and energy efficiency.

However, Reliance Group is not part of Reliance Industries, the Indian conglomerate and 76th largest company in the world, limiting the impact of the news on XRP demand. A large blue-chip company targeting XRP as a treasury reserve asset could significantly shift the dynamic.

Reliance Group’s move follows a growing trend among public firms adopting XRP for balance-sheet diversification.

Earlier this month, Nasdaq-listed VivoPower International Plc. (VVPR) announced plans to use approximately $121 million in proceeds from a private capital raise to launch an XRP-focused digital asset treasury strategy.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Capitol Hill Deadlock in Focus

XRP gained 0.91% on Wednesday, October 8, partially reversing the previous day’s 4.56% loss to close at $2.8804. The token underperformed the broader market, which climbed 1.62%, but hovered near the psychological $3 level.

Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support levels: $2.8 and $2.5.
• Resistance levels: $3, $3.1, $3.3, and $3.66 (all-time high).

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key events could drive near-term price trends:

• The US Senate’s vote on stopgap funding bills.
• Fed speakers.
• XRP ETF developments (delays or launches), and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related headlines could also dictate near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario

• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs report outflows, and BlackRock downplays plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US government shutdown extends, delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• Lawmakers stall crypto-friendly regulations, such as the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies show no interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT retains global remittance market share, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP below $2.8, bringing the $2.5 support level into view.

Bullish Scenario

• US Senate passes stopgap funding bill.
• Fed speakers support multiple rate cuts in the fourth quarter.
• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report robust demand.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC greenlights XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses market share in the global remittance business to Ripple.

These bullish events could drive XRP above $3, paving the way toward $3.1. A sustained move through $3.1 could open the door to testing $3.3 and the all-time high of $3.66.

The Big Question: Will the US Shutdown End Today?

On Thursday, October 9, the focus will remain on the US Senate. A vote passing a stopgap funding bill could fuel expectations of an imminent launch of XRP-spot ETFs. Optimism over strong XRP-spot ETF demand could lift the token above the psychological $3 level. However, further delays would leave Fed speakers to influence near-term trends.

Growing support for multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter would likely improve sentiment. On the other hand, concerns over elevated inflation may weigh on demand for XRP.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.