XRP News Today: XRP Holds Support as Senate Market Structure Vote Nears

XRP held onto $1.9 as the Fed left interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. Fed Chair Powell’s non-committal on further easing of monetary policy also failed to surprise the markets.

The focus now turns to US lawmakers. On Thursday, January 29, the US Senate Agriculture Committee will hold its markup and vote on its draft text for the Market Structure Bill, putting crypto regulation front and center.

Despite snapping a two-day winning streak, XRP’s medium-term price outlook remains bullish.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

Fed Chair Powell Signals Data-Dependent Policy Stance

On Wednesday, January 28, the Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.75%, with two FOMC members voting for a rate cut. Crucially, Fed Chair Powell downplayed a near-term rate cut, signaling a meeting-by-meeting policy stance. The Fed Chair focused more on inflation than the labor market, underscoring the influence of elevated consumer prices on future policy decisions.

Powell’s comments had a limited effect on expectations of a June Fed cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June cut fell from 65.4% on January 27 to 60.8% on January 28.

Notably, XRP dropped to a low of $1.9059 before briefly climbing to a high of $1.9289 during Powell’s press conference. Despite Powell’s meeting-by-meeting stance, economists continued to project two rate cuts in 2026, bolstering demand for risk assets.

US XRP-Spot ETFs Brush Aside Powell’s Hold Outlook

Notably, Fed Chair Powell’s policy stance failed to dampen demand for US XRP-spot ETFs. On January 28, US XRP-spot ETF issuers reported net inflows of $6.95 million, following the previous day’s inflows of $9.16 million. The US XRP-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to six consecutive sessions, tilting the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor.

Crucially, the US XRP-spot ETF market has seen total net inflows of $1.26 billion, with just two days of net outflows since launching in November 2025. In contrast, the US BTC-spot ETF market has reported net outflows of $2.99 billion since the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) launched on November 14, 2025.

Analysts expect crypto-friendly legislation to boost XRP utility, pushing the supply-demand balance further in the token’s favor.

On January 29, the US Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a markup and vote on draft text for the Market Structure Bill.

XRP Exposed to Crypto Legislative Developments

XRP will likely be more sensitive to crypto-related regulatory developments than Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, given recent price action.

Optimism toward the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill in the first quarter of 2026 boosted demand for XRP in early January.

The token rallied from $1.8103 on December 31 to a January 6 high of $2.4151 in response to the Banking Committee announcing its January 15 markup. However, delays to the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee’s markups triggered a reversal. XRP dropped to a January 25 low of $1.8113 before reclaiming $1.9.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Resilient inflows into XRP-spot ETFs reinforced the positive short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $2.5. Furthermore, the progress of the Market Structure Bill, increased XRP utility, and expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts reaffirm the bullish longer-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish XRP Outlook

Several events could derail the constructive bias. These include:

• The Bank of Japan hints at multiple rate hikes to reach a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). A higher neutral rate would narrow US-Japan rate differentials more than expected. A markedly narrower rate differential could trigger an unwind of yen carry trades, as seen in mid-2024. An unwind of the yen carry trade would invalidate the bullish short-term outlook.
• Strong US economic indicators and waning bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These factors would weigh on sentiment, sending XRP below $1.85 and indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP fell 0.30% on Wednesday, January 28, partially reversing the previous day’s 0.50% gain to close at $1.9078. The token tracked the broader crypto market cap, which declined 0.08%.

Wednesday’s pullback left XRP trading below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bearish bias. However, favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.85, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0152.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.2760.
• Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

On the daily chart, reclaiming $2.0 would pave the way toward the 50-day EMA. Importantly, a sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would open the door to testing $2.2. A breakout above $2.2 would then bring the 200-day EMA into play.

A sustained move through the EMAs would reaffirm the bullish short- to medium-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• US economic indicators and Fed rhetoric.
• US crypto-related regulatory developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and rate path.
• US President Trump’s tariff policies and geopolitical news.

Breaking Resistance at $2 Remains Key for XRP’s Bullish Structure

Breaking resistance at $2 remains key for the short- to medium-term outlook. The favorable fundamentals, as outlined above, continue to counter bearish technicals, suggesting a near-term breakout. XRP’s rebound from December’s low of $1.7712 and January gains of 2.13% affirmed the bullish structure and short- to medium-term price targets.

A move through $2.0 would enable the bulls to target the upper trendline. A sustained break above the upper trendline would affirm the bullish trend reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

However, a sustained drop below the lower trendline to sub-$1.85 levels would invalidate the bullish structure, indicating a bearish trend reversal.

XRP Outlook Dependent on Crypto Legislation, ETFs, and Central Banks

Looking ahead, the Agriculture Committee’s markup vote will be pivotal for XRP’s near-term price outlook. Progressing the draft text would improve expectations that the Senate will pass the Bill, lifting demand for XRP.

However, geopolitical developments and demand for XRP-spot ETFs will also influence near-term price trends.

A dovish Fed rate path and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would boost XRP demand. Robust inflows into US XRP-spot ETFs and the progress of the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the constructive bias.

In summary, these scenarios support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. The US Senate’s passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Beyond 12 weeks, these factors are likely to send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A break above $3.66 would support a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.