XRP News Today: XRP Snaps Losing Streak on Crypto Bill Hopes

XRP snaps a four-day losing streak as US-Canada trade tensions ease and traders react to crypto-legislative developments on Capitol Hill.

Fears of a 100% tariff on Canadian goods bound for the US abated as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney dismissed reports of signing a free trade deal with China.

Meanwhile, crypto-related regulatory news lifted sentiment. The US Senate Agriculture Committee rescheduled its weather-delayed markup of the Market Structure Bill’s draft text.

XRP’s rebound on Monday, January 26, reaffirmed the token’s bullish medium-term price outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US Senate Agriculture Committee Announces New Markup Date

On January 26, the Agriculture Committee rescheduled its markup date, on the draft text for the Market Structure Bill, to Thursday, January 29. Last week, the Agriculture Committee delayed the January 26 markup due to adverse weather conditions.

The markup enables lawmakers to review the draft text of the Bill, suggest amendments, and vote on whether to pass it to the Senate floor. While the vote does not guarantee final passage, it will provide insight into whether crypto legislation has bipartisan backing, crucial for reaching the Senate floor for a full vote.

Crypto in America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett shared the latest updates from the Agriculture Committee, stating:

“According to Politico, Senator Dr. Roger Marshall (R-KS) has agreed not to offer his credit card swipe fee amendment during the Agriculture Committee’s markup on Thursday, and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) is not expected to bring it up either, following lobbying over the weekend from the White House and crypto proponents. The move is expected to smooth the bill’s path through the committee.”

However, Terrett listed other amendments that remained on the table ahead of Thursday’s markup, stating:

“Ethics rules for government officials and their families; a requirement that the CFTC have at least four sitting commissioners following a consultation with the minority party; a ban on bailouts of crypto issuers; anti-fraud provisions for crypto ATMs; and restrictions on foreign adversary participation in US crypto markets.”

XRP Remains Exposed to Crypto-Related Regulatory Headlines

Importantly, the draft text would need to be merged with the US Senate Banking Committee’s draft text of the Market Structure Bill, which faces challenges over stablecoin yields. Nevertheless, traders should expect XRP price sensitivity to the vote, given previous price action. The Bill’s passage would likely boost buying interest in the token, supporting the bullish price outlook. Conversely, XRP would likely face intense selling pressure if the Bill stalls.

The prospects of another US government shutdown add another dimension to Thursday’s vote.

Further lobbying and markup votes would be materially delayed if the US government shuts down. The 2025 US government shutdown sank hopes of crypto-friendly legislation being in place by the end of the year, weighing on XRP.

For context, XRP surged 14.69% to close at $3.4866 on July 17 after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. However, the threat of a US government shutdown and the eventual shutdown in October sent the token crashing to a December low of $1.7712. While other factors also influenced buying interest through the fourth quarter, delays to crypto legislation were key.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Renewed buying interest in XRP-spot ETFs affirmed a positive short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $2.5. Additionally, rising expectations that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, increased XRP utility, and demand for spot ETFs reinforce the bullish longer-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish XRP Outlook

Several events could derail the positive outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan indicates multiple rate hikes to attain a hawkish neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). A higher neutral rate would lead to a narrower US-Japan rate differential. A narrower rate differential could trigger an unwind of yen carry trades, as seen in mid-2024. An unwind of the yen carry trade would invalidate the bullish short-term outlook.
• Reduced expectations of an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Further delays and/or partisan challenges to the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These factors would weigh on cryptos, sending XRP below $1.85 and indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP rallied 3.83% on Monday, January 26, partially reversing the previous day’s 4.16% slide to close at $1.9041. The token outperformed the broader crypto market cap, which gained 2.27%.

Despite the recovery, XRP remained below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bearish bias. However, the favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.85, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0237.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.2833.
• Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

On the daily chart, a move above $2.0 would pave the way toward the 50-day EMA. Importantly, a sustained break above the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would bring $2.2 into play. Furthermore, a breakout above $2.2 would open the door to testing the 200-day EMA.

Crucially, a sustained move through the EMAs would reaffirm the bullish short- to medium-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• US economic data and the Fed’s monetary rate path. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, January 28, will be a key event.
• US crypto-related regulatory developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and policy stance.

Breaking Resistance at $2 Remains Key for XRP’s Bullish Structure

Breaking above $2 remains key for the short- to medium-term outlook. The bullish fundamentals, as outlined above, continue to counter bearish technicals, suggesting a near-term recovery. XRP’s rally from December’s low of $1.7712 and January gains of 3.13% affirmed the bullish structure and short- to medium-term price targets.

Reclaiming $2.0 would enable the bulls to target the upper trendline. A sustained break above the upper trendline would reaffirm the bullish trend reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

In contrast, a sustained drop below the lower trendline to sub-$1.85 levels would invalidate the bullish structure, indicating a bearish trend reversal.

XRP Outlook Hinges on Crypto Legislation, ETFs, and Central Banks

Looking ahead, the upcoming Agriculture Committee’s markup will be critical for XRP’s near-term price outlook. Progressing the draft text would fuel expectations that the Senate will pass the Bill, boosting demand for XRP.

However, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, US economic data, tariff-related news, and demand for XRP-spot ETFs will also influence near-term price trends.

A more dovish Fed policy stance and a dovish BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would lift sentiment. Robust demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and the progress of the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the constructive bias.

In summary, these scenarios support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. The US Senate’s passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Beyond 12 weeks, these price catalysts are likely to send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A break above $3.66 would support a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.