XRP Price News: Bulls Defend $3, Eyes on ETF Inflows and Fed Path

XRP Breaks Above $3 as Bulls Ready for the Fed and an ETF Launch

XRP bounces back above the crucial psychological $3 level ahead of two pivotal market events.

Fed Rate Decision: 25 or 50 Basis Points and What’s the Fourth Quarter Rate Path

On Wednesday, September 17, the US Federal Reserve will be under the spotlight. Economists expect the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with a 3.9% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.

A 50 bps rate cut and projections for two further rate cuts in the fourth quarter could fuel demand for risk assets, including XRP. On the other hand, a 25 bps reduction and projections for one or no rate cuts in Q4 could weigh on sentiment.

Why do the Fed’s interest rate decisions and policy outlook matter for traders?

The last Fed rate cut was on December 18, 2024. While cutting interest rates by 25 bps, the FOMC Economic Projections signaled a less dovish Fed rate path. XRP tumbled 10% in response. There is a potential for similar-sized moves, underscoring the Fed’s influence on risk appetite.

While the Fed’s interest rate decision and policy outlook will influence sentiment, traders should also consider the upcoming ETF launch.

REX-Osprey XRP ETF Countdown to Launch

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF is expected to launch on Thursday, September 18. The ETF will be the first XRP ETF launch in the US. Unlike the pending spot ETF filings, the REX-Osprey ETF has a hybrid investment objective, investing in XRP, XRP ETFs, and XRP derivatives.

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan remarked on the ETF’s investment strategy, stating:

“XRP ETF with spot exposure to XRP price is coming this week. This means the fund will in part (80%) invest in and hold XRP itself and assets that have exposure to XRP, directly or through a subsidiary.”

Flow trends will be crucial for XRP’s near-term price outlook. Strong demand could signal pent-up demand for spot ETFs, potentially driving the token to new highs. Conversely, weak inflows may temper expectations of strong inflows into XRP-spot ETFs, once approved, weighing on XRP.

For context, the REX-Osprey Solana ETF (SSK) has reported net inflows of $230 million since launching on July 2, 2025. Solana (SOL) soared 70% from July 2 to an eight-month high of $249.68 (September 14).

Similar demand for the REX-Osprey XRP ETF could send the token above $5.

Nate Geraci, President at NovaDius Wealth Management, commented on the significance of the REX-Osprey launch, stating:

“First ETF offering spot XRP exposure set to launch this week… REX-Osprey using clever regulatory end-around via ’40 Act structure to bring this to market. Will be another good litmus test for ’33 Act spot XRP ETF demand. Futures-based XRP ETFs already nearing $1 bil in assets.”

Notably, the REX-Osprey ETF will launch ahead of the final decision deadlines for several spot ETFs. XRP-spot ETF issuers include 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree. Final decision deadlines range from October 18 to November 14.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: $3 and Then $3.2

XRP gained 1.29% on Tuesday, September 16, reversing the previous day’s 1.07% loss to close at $3.0373. The token tracked the broader market (1%) and broke above the psychological $3 level. Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support: $3, $2.8, and $2.5.
• Resistance: $3.2, $3.335, and the all-time high at $3.66.

In the near term, several key events could drive price action:

• Fed interest rate decision and policy outlook.
• REX-Osprey XRP ETF launch and demand.
• Spot ETFs: Approval or delays spot ETFs. A BlackRock (BLK) iShares XRP Trust filing could be a price catalyst.
• Blue-chip companies’ stance on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application, Market Structure Bill-related developments, and SWIFT news may further dictate sentiment.

Catalysts & Scenarios

XRP’s outlook hinges on corporate, macroeconomic, and regulatory events. Potential price scenarios include:

Bearish Scenario

• Fed cuts rates by 25 bps and signals one or no rate cuts in the fourth quarter.
• REX-Osprey XRP ETF sees weak demand.
• SEC declines spot ETF applications.
• Legislative roadblocks, such as Democratic Party members contesting the Market Structure Bill, or delays to crypto-friendly regulations.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains global dominance, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push the token below $3, exposing $2.8 and potentially $2.5, the next key support level.

Bullish Scenario

• Fed cuts rates by 25 or 50 bps and projects multiple rate cuts in Q4.
• REX-Osprey XRP ETF sees strong inflows.
• BlackRock files for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies adopt XRP as treasury reserve assets, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses market share of global remittances to Ripple.

These events could send the token toward $3.2. A sustained move through $3.2 could pave the way toward $3.35 and bring the record high of $3.66 (Binance) into play.

Conclusion: Could XRP ETF Launch Trigger a Breakout?

Traders face a pivotal few months. Beyond the Fed and the REX-Osprey launch, spot ETF approvals, and the Market Structure Bill passing the Senate may send the token above $3.66.

However, regulatory delays and lackluster institutional demand may push XRP below $3, exposing $2.8.

For traders, the next few months could determine whether XRP soars to new highs or succumbs to selling pressure from regulatory and market developments.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory and economic risks affect XRP’s trajectory in the coming months.