XRP Price News: Can ETF Hopes Push Price Above $3.20 Barrier?

XRP Slides Below Psychological $3 Level as Whales Offload

XRP faces profit-taking after striking a four-week high $3.1860 amid speculation of an XRP ETF launch.

Retail Optimism vs. Whale Activity

Selling pressure intensified on Monday, September 15, as XRP failed to break above $3.2 to target the crucial $3.335 resistance level. Prominent crypto analyst Ali, with over 150k followers on X, stated that whales sold 160 million XRP in the last two weeks, equivalent to around $480 million.

Monday’s pullback followed a heavier drawdown on Sunday, September 14, as investors awaited the SEC’s decision on XRP-spot ETF applications.

Optimism toward the SEC approving the XRP-spot ETFs had triggered a four-day rally before the latest retreat below the psychological $3 level.

However, markets typically move in the opposite direction to sentiment. Market Intelligence platform Santiment previously warned:

“Prices typically move the opposite direction of retail’s expectations.”

Retail investors’ bullishness over the likely launch of spot ETFs contrasts with recent whale activity.

REX-Osprey ETF Launch: A Litmus Test

Despite XRP’s drop below $3, the imminent launch of the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF could be a litmus test of the potential success of an XRP-spot ETF market.

Crypto America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett commented:

“The REX-Osprey XRPR ETF launches this week. To my understanding, it’s a spot product in a 40 Act wrapper that holds real XRP plus cash, treasuries, and some derivatives. Basically a spot ETF with extras, and is more regulated than traditional spot products.”

ETF issuers such as REX-Osprey have preferred the Investment Company Act of 1940.

For context, the Investment Company Act of 1940 regulates investment companies, including mutual funds, ETFs, and closed-end funds, which invest in various asset classes. Investment companies, under the 1940 Act, can invest in a diverse asset pool that includes stocks, commodities, cryptos, and derivatives.

The REX-Osprey XRPR ETF launch will be the first US product to offer investors spot exposure to XRP. Initial flow trends could give sidelined investors a taste of what’s to come should the SEC green-light the spot ETFs.

BlackRock’s Potential XRP Play

BlackRock (BLK) has remained silent on its XRP-spot ETF plans despite the impending launch of the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF.

Market analysts have attributed BlackRock’s absence to SEC plans to roll out a standardized crypto ETF framework. BlackRock met with the SEC Crypto Task Force in May to discuss ETF approval standards. The SEC’s standardized crypto ETF framework could be the green light for the ETF issuer to apply for an iShares XRP Trust.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have been trailblazers in the crypto-spot ETF market. Since launch, IBIT and ETHA have reported net inflows of $59.8 billion and $12.9 billion, respectively, driving BTC and ETH to record highs.

An iShares XRP Trust could potentially fuel similar institutional demand and drive the token to new highs.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: $3 and Then $3.2

XRP fell 1.07% on Monday, September 15, following the previous day’s 2.86% loss, closing at $2.9986. The token underperformed the broader market (0.56%) but held close to the psychological $3 level. Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support: $2.8 and $2.5.
• Resistance: $3, $3.2, $3.335, and the all-time high at $3.66.

In the near term, several key events could drive price action:

• Spot ETFs: Approval or delays of XRP-spot ETFs could affect sentiment. A BlackRock (BLK) iShares XRP Trust filing might be a potential price catalyst.
• Institutional Adoption: Blue-chip companies announcing plans to hold XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application, Market Structure Bill-related headlines, and SWIFT news may further dictate sentiment.

Catalysts & Scenarios

XRP’s outlook hinges on corporate, macroeconomic, and regulatory events. Potential price scenarios include:

Bearish Scenario

• Legislative holdups, such as Democratic Party members slowing the Market Structure Bill’s progress, or delays to crypto-friendly regulations.
• Blue-chip companies avoid XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains global dominance, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP toward $2.8 and potentially $2.5, the next key support level.

Bullish Scenario

• BlackRock applies for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies adopt XRP as treasury reserve assets, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses market share of global remittances to Ripple.

These events could send XRP above $3, paving the way to $3.2. A sustained move through $3.2 could give the bulls a run at $3.35 and bring the record high of $3.66 (Binance) into view.

Conclusion: Could XRP ETF Launch Trigger a Breakout?

XRP traders face a crucial few months. XRP-spot ETF approvals and the Market Structure Bill passing the Senate could trigger a breakout, potentially driving XRP above $3.66.

However, regulatory setbacks and weak institutional demand may push XRP toward $2.8.

For traders, the fourth quarter could determine whether XRP reaches new highs or faces intensifying selling pressure from regulatory and market developments.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory and economic risks affect XRP’s trajectory in the coming months.