Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis as Ukraine Hits Russia’s Energy Infrastructure

Ukraine’s drone strike on Russia’s Kirishi refinery has forced a major processing unit offline, cutting into roughly 6% of the country’s refining capacity. This attack was described as the most damaging to date in Russia’s northwest, which triggered fires that halted operations. This loss of output comes at a time when oil markets are already tight, potentially reducing refined product availability and pushing prices higher.

In addition to the refinery outage, Ukrainian forces damaged two tankers and key infrastructure at the Primorsk oil terminal. Although partial operations have resumed, loading capacity may remain down by as much as 50%, significantly slowing Russia’s crude exports. With Primorsk handling up to 1 million barrels per day, even a temporary disruption can send ripple effects through global oil supply chains.

Oil traders now face rising uncertainty over Russian exports through the Baltic. As loading schedules are delayed and infrastructure repairs continue, supply risks are intensifying just as seasonal demand begins to rise. If Ukraine continues targeting critical energy infrastructure, markets could experience sustained upward pressure on oil prices amid fears of prolonged export disruptions.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Rebound from Support Zone

The daily chart for WTI crude oil (CL) shows a rebound from the support of the ascending channel pattern. The $60 to $55.50 range remains a key long-term support zone, where prices are currently consolidating. However, the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, indicating ongoing bearish pressure.

A break above the 200-day SMA near the $67 level could trigger a strong rebound toward the $75–$77 region. Conversely, a break below $60 would signal a continuation of the negative trend in WTI crude oil.

Despite bearish pressure, WTI crude oil prices are consolidating near the edge of a triangle pattern above the $60 area, indicating potential bullish price action. This is supported by the formation of a double bottom around the $55 region in April and May 2025. A break above the $65 level would signal another rebound, with upside targets toward the $75 region in WTI crude oil.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation inside Triangle

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude further highlights the bullish price action, as the price is consolidating within the edge of a triangle pattern. A break above $65 would signal further upside, while a break below $61.60 would invalidate the triangle and resume the downward trend.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Bullish Construction

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that prices are forming a bullish price action above the $2.60 level. A strong rebound from the neckline of the cup-and-handle pattern suggests that natural gas is gaining bullish momentum.

This bullish momentum indicates that further upside is likely toward the 200-day SMA resistance near $3.60. Additionally, the RSI is approaching the 50 level, reinforcing the potential for continued gains.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Construction

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows a strong bullish price action forming above the $2.60 area. A break above $3.18 will signal further upside in natural gas prices, while a break below $2.60 would suggest a continuation of the downtrend.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Breakout of Bear Flag

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it has broken below the bear flag pattern and is continuing its downward momentum. Consolidation below the 50-day SMA suggests the index is poised for a significant decline. Moreover, the RSI remains below the mid-level, indicating further downside potential for the US dollar.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it is approaching the support level at 97.20. A break below this level would end the one-month consolidation and signal further downside, confirming continued bearish price action.