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XRP Price Prediction: No SEC v Ripple News Leaves Sub-$0.30 in Play

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Jul 1, 2022, 08:50 UTC

XRP was under pressure this morning, with market forces weighing. A favorable court ruling from the SEC v Ripple case would support a breakout.

XRP under pressure

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, XRP rose by 0.97%. A late rally ended a four-day losing streak.
  • There were no news updates or court rulings on the SEC v Ripple case, leaving XRP exposed to crypto market forces.
  • Technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA.

On Thursday, XRP rose by 0.97%. Partially reversing a 2.37% fall from Thursday, XRP ended the day at $0.3321.

A bearish morning saw XRP slide to an early afternoon low of $0.3058.

XRP fell through the First Major Support Level at $0.3188 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.3088.

Finding late support, however, XRP rallied to a final hour high of $0.3329 before easing back.

Investor fears of a recession hit the riskier assets, with US inflation and personal spending weighing.

Following weak consumer confidence numbers for June, personal spending rose modestly in May, painting a bleak picture. Inflationary pressures failed to soften, adding to the market angst.

On a directional basis, XRP continued to closely track bitcoin (BTC) and the NASDAQ 100, with no external influences to break the link.

XRP tracks BTC.
XRP-NASDAQ-BTC 010722 5-minute chart

Throughout this week and through the Thursday session, the correlation reflected the lack of news updates from the SEC v Ripple case that remains the key driver.

Broader Market Moves Influence Ahead of Key Court Ruling

This morning, XRP was under pressure alongside the broader crypto market, with risk aversion continuing to plague riskier assets.

Economic data from the US is unlikely to shift investor sentiment later in the day, leaving dip buyers to limit the downside.

The pending court ruling on the SEC motion to shield William Hinman’s 2018 speech-related documents under attorney-client privilege remains the key driver.

Since June 16, the markets have been awaiting a court ruling, which could come at any time.

Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 4.46% to $0.3173.

A bearish morning saw XRP fall from an early high of $0.3353 to a low of $0.3088

XRP fell through the First Major Support Level at $0.3143 before finding support.

XRP under early pressure
XRPUSD 010722 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

An XRP move through the $0.3236 pivot would bring the First Major Resistance Level at $0.3414 into play.

A shift in market sentiment would support a breakout from the morning high of $0.3353.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP could test resistance at $0.35 and the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.3507. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.3778.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level at $0.3143 in play.

Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.30 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.2965. The Third Major Support Level sits at $0.2694.

Any court ruling on the William Hinman documents would remove the influence of the Major Support and Resistance Levels.

XRP support levels in play
XRPUSD 010722 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bearish signal. At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.3363. Today, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, price negative.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a return to $0.35 to bring the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.3672, into play.

However, the pullback from the 50-day EMA and a failed bullish cross will leave XRP under pressure.

EMAs bearish
XRPUSD 010722 4-Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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