Key Insights:
- On Friday, XRP consolidated Thursday’s 22.90% surge with a 4.66% gain to end the session at $0.5073.
- Optimism towards the SEC v Ripple case remained the key driver.
- The technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a breakout from $0.55.
On Friday, XRP rallied by 4.66%. Following Thursday’s 22.90% breakout session, XRP ended the day at $0.5073. XRP last ended a session at $0.50 in May.
A bullish morning saw XRP rally to a mid-morning high of $0.55870 before hitting reverse. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5247 before sliding to a low of $0.45678. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4197, XRP bounced back to end the day at $0.5073.
Sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case remained the key driver, though support from the broader market also contributed to a further decoupling from the NASDAQ 100. On Friday, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.80%, with recession fears weighing as investors responded to private sector PMIs from Europe and the US.
Investor Sentiment Toward the SEC v Ripple Case Remains the Key
Hopes of a favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple case continue to drive XRP back towards $1.00. On Friday, there were no updates to support another breakout session. The lack of news left investors to consider last weekend’s Motion for Summary Judgment filings and a shift in focus from William Hinman’s speech-related documents.
The defendants filed their Motion for Summary Judgment before a Court decision on the SEC objection to the Court denying its motion to shield William Hinman’s speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.
The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, is a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.
Until late July, the Defendants had the SEC on the defensive, with numerous Hinman-related Court rulings going in favor of the Defendants. The SEC had battled to shield the Hinman documents under the attorney-client privilege, with more than six motions contesting previous Court decisions.
The Motion for Summary judgment filing suggests an out-of-court agreement. Previously, the market consensus had been that the SEC would do whatever it could to prevent the documents from becoming public records, including a settlement.
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At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.91% to $0.50268. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.51334 before falling to a low of $0.49707.
Technical Indicators
XRP needs to move through the $0.5076 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5584 and the Friday high of $0.5587. Investor sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case will need to remain positive to support the current uptrend.
Another extended rally would support a run at $0.60 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6095. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.7114.
Failure through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4565 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4057.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3038.
The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.
At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.4152. The 50-day EMA widened from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling away from the 200-day EMA. The signals were price positives.
Following Monday’s breakout from the 50-day EMA, the current trend supports an XRP breakout from R1 ($0.5584) to target $0.60. However, a slide through S1 ($0.4565) would give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.4152). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.3684.
