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A Light Economic Calendar Puts the GBP and Brexit in the Limelight

The Dollar found strong support early, as the markets considered the implications on existing tariffs on the economic outlook. Brexit chatter also weighed.
Bob Mason
Silvanute

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

China’s September trade figures provided direction at the start of the week.

On the geopolitical front, the Asian equity markets responded to the positive updates on Brexit and trade negotiations.

In the FX markets, however, the mood was less bullish. Existing punitive tariffs remain that suggest more doom and gloom before any pickup in economic activity.

From China

The U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from $34.84bn to $39.65bn in September. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $33.30bn.

  • Year-on-year, exports fell by 3.2%, which was worse than a forecasted 3.0% fall. In August, exports had fallen by 1.0%.
  • Imports fell by 8.5%, year-on-year, in September, which was worse than a forecasted fall of 5.2%. Imports had fallen by 5.6% in August.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67760 to $0.67861 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.15% to $0.6784.

While the trade surplus widened, a slide in imports suggests waning demand that could spell trouble in the months ahead.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, The Japanese Yen was down by 0.03% to ¥108.32 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.49% to $0.6306.

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The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. The Eurozone’s August industrial production figures are due out of the Eurozone.

Following an unexpected pickup Germany, forecasts are EUR positive.

Outside of the numbers, we can expect direction to also come from Brexit and any chatter on trade.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.13% to $1.1028.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter throughout the day. The EU Summit is now within sight and Boris Johnson has just days to finalize a deal with the EU.

Expect Pound sensitivity to Brexit chatter to remain heightened at the start of the week.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.59% to $1.2593. A lack of progress from the weekend weighed on the Pound early on.

Across the Pond

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback with direction on the day.

The lack of stats will leave geopolitics in focus. Any further easing in geopolitical risk would be considered Dollar negative.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.14% to 98.436 at the time of writing. Support kicked in early as trade talks failed to lead to a removal of existing tariffs.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

We can expect market risk sentiment through the day to influence. Trade data out of China and no suggestion of the removal of existing tariffs were negatives early on.

The Loonie was down by 0.05% at C$1.3209, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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