The Dollar is on the back foot early as risk sentiment improves. Nonfarm payroll figures from the U.S could spook the markets later, however.
It was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar were in focus in the early part of the day.
Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers,
On Thursday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 191,233 to 3,912,106. On Wednesday, the number of new cases had risen by 87,960. The daily increase was far higher than Wednesday’s rise and a 75,118 increase on the previous Thursday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 16,103 new cases on Thursday, which was up from 9,651 new cases on Wednesday. On the previous Thursday, 7,182 new cases had been reported. All 4 member states saw a rise in new cases, with France and Spain reporting the highest increases on the day.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 56,348 to 1,291,804 on Thursday. On Wednesday, the total number of cases had risen by 20,715. On Thursday, 30th April, the total new number of cases had risen by 30,883.
Household spending fell by 6% in March, year-on-year, following on from a 0.3% decline in February. Economists had forecast a 6.7% decline.
According to the Statistic Bureau,
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.312 to ¥106.351 upon release of the figures.
Service sector figures were also disappointing, with the finalized April PMI coming in at 21.5, which was below a prelim 22.8. In March, the PMI had stood at 33.8.
According to the finalized Markit Survey,
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.402 to ¥106.364 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥106.32 against the U.S Dollar.
The RBA Monetary Policy Statement garnered further interest following Tuesday’s RBA Rate Statement.
Salient points from the Statement of Monetary Policy included.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65289 to $0.65365 upon release of the Statement. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.62% to $0.6535.
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.53% to $0.6119.
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany’s trade figures for April are due out later this morning.
Following particularly disappointing factory orders mid-week, could Germany see a trade deficit in April?
With nonfarm payrolls due out of the U.S, risk aversion could ultimately weigh pin back the EUR later in the day.
There’ is also the issue of the German court ruling on the ECB’s bond-buying program and then there’s U.S – China relations…
The end of the week has tended to be a Trump favorite time to send threatening messages…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.13% to $1.0848.
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
Brexit uncertainty, tough trade talks with the U.S, and the continued rise in COVID-19 cases remain negatives for the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.31% to $1.2400, with the markets responding further to the BoE’s hold on Thursday.
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar.
April’s nonfarm payrolls, participation rate, and the unemployment rate will be a key driver later in the day.
Following the ADP numbers mid-week and the weekly jobless claims figures in recent weeks, it’s not going to be pretty.
A 20m slide in nonfarm payrolls seems a little light, which suggests a market shock later today… An unemployment rate of 14% or more is unlikely to be much of a comfort blanket either.
Outside of the numbers, expect chatter from the Oval Office to also be in focus on the day… Trump’s Twitter account could get active going into the weekend. The NFP numbers will certainly give the U.S President reason to deflect.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.23% to 99.656 at the time of writing.
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with April employment and March building permit figures due out later today.
Expect the April employment figures to influence, with forecasts pointing to another marked jump forecasted.
Anything close to March numbers and expect the Loonie to pay the price.
Outside of the numbers, however, expect market risk sentiment and crude oil prices to remain a key driver.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.27% to C$1.3935 against the U.S Dollar.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.