Stock Futures Climb as PCE Data Matches Forecasts, Tariff Moves Stir Sector Action
U.S. stock futures edged higher Friday after a widely watched inflation gauge aligned with expectations, giving traders a reason to reassess the recent selloff.
The S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%, and Dow futures added 210 points, or 0.5%. The uptick followed three straight losing sessions driven by hawkish economic data and weakness in AI-related stocks.
The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed core inflation at a 2.9% annualized rate and a 0.2% monthly rise—both in line with estimates. Headline PCE also matched forecasts at 2.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. While not easing enough to shift Federal Reserve policy sharply, the data calmed fears raised by stronger-than-expected jobless claims and an upward GDP revision released Thursday.
What’s the Federal Reserve Outlook Now That PCE Is in Line?
Despite the steady PCE reading, traders continue to expect two 25 basis-point cuts in the coming months, consistent with the Fed’s latest projections.
Thursday’s data, showing a drop in jobless claims and a stronger second-quarter GDP revised to 3.8%, had temporarily undermined those expectations, leading to risk-off sentiment.
But Friday’s inflation release helped balance the view. David Russell of TradeStation noted, “Yesterday’s claims and GDP revision undermined the dovish narrative, but today’s PCE calms some of those worries. No news is good news.”
How Are Indexes Reacting to Sector Pressure and Tariff Headlines?
The S&P 500 is still down nearly 0.9% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite has lost 1.1% and the Dow is off by 0.8%.
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Tech remained under pressure, led by a 5.6% weekly drop in Oracle and broader weakness in AI stocks. New tariff threats from former President Trump also reshaped premarket sentiment. Trump announced a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceutical imports and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, effective October 1.
Shares of truck maker Paccar surged 7% on the tariff news, while pharmaceutical giants Eli Lilly, Abbvie, and Merck rose 1.5% as U.S.-based production offered a buffer.
Meanwhile, RH dropped nearly 4% on a proposed 30% tariff on imported furniture. Semiconductor stocks also fell after reports Trump may require a 1:1 domestic manufacturing ratio to avoid new levies.
Which Stocks Are Making the Biggest Premarket Moves?
Intel rose 4.4% after reports it’s seeking investment from Apple and TSMC.
Riot Platforms jumped 4.6% on a Citigroup upgrade, while Concentrix tumbled 20% following a disappointing earnings miss.
Costco dipped 1% despite beating earnings and revenue expectations, as investors focused on slowing same-store sales growth.
What’s the Market Setup Heading Into the Close?
With inflation data coming in line and tariff risks resurfacing, traders are watching for clarity on Fed policy and corporate earnings.
The market appears to be consolidating after a three-day pullback, with technical traders eyeing whether the S&P 500 can hold near-term support around the 50-day moving average at 6534.70.
Attention now turns to upcoming Fed speeches and next week’s ISM data and nonfarm payrolls, which will be critical in shaping rate cut bets.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
