Are US Investors Being Too Optimistic About Impact of Vaccines?

It’s all systems go in the United States after CDC Director Robert Redfield signed off on Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, allowing inoculations to officially move forward for people ages 16 or older.

The decision comes one day after the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, an outside group of medical experts that advises the agency, voted 11 to 0 to recommend the vaccine. The FDA approved an emergency use of authorization on Friday.

The U.S. has begun to ship the doses from a Pfizer facility in Michigan to hundreds of distribution centers across the country.

First Shipments Out for Delivery

The first shipments in the U.S. of the vaccine are now out for delivery.

Trucks carrying boxes containing vaccine doses left Pfizer’s manufacturing facility in Kalamazoo, Michigan and are expected to arrive on Monday, according to Pfizer.

189 boxes are shipping to sites across all 50 states and 4 boxes will ship to U.S. territories.

Another 400 boxes will be shipped on Monday with delivery expected Tuesday, Pfizer said.

NIH Director Says Reluctance to Take Vaccine Source of Concern, Pleads with People to Get Inoculated

National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Frances Collins said that surveys showing that many Americans are reluctant to receive a COVID-19 vaccine are a “source of great concern for all of us” and urged the public to get inoculated.

“I would like to plead to people who are listening to this this morning, to really hit the reset button on whatever they think they knew about this vaccine that might cause them to be so skeptical,” Collins told Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

US could Reach Herd Immunity by June but Enough People Must Get Vaccinated, Slaoui Says

Dr. Moncref Slaoui, chief medical advisor of Operation Warp Speed, said on Sunday that roughly 75-80% of the U.S. population must get vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, or the point at which enough people are protected for the virus to be contained.

“We hope to reach that point between the month of May and June. It is, however, critical that most of the American people decide and accept to take the vaccine,” Slaoui said on “Fox News Sunday.”

As states prepare to receive the first rounds of vaccines, only about half of Americans say they want a shot, while a quarter aren’t sure they will get one and an additional quarter say they won’t get one, according to an Associated Press-Norc Poll.

Bill Gates Says Next Four to Six Months Could Be the Worst of the Pandemic, but ‘We Can See that This Will End’

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates says the end of the pandemic is in sight, but urged people to continue wearing masks and “not mixing” to avoid an additional hundreds of thousands of deaths.

“The next four to six months really call on us to do our best, because we can see that this will end, and you don’t want somebody you love to be the last to die of coronavirus,” he told Jake Tapper on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday morning.

Why is This Important?

Investors have bet billions on a successful launch of the coronavirus vaccine, but if the numbers aren’t there, it will hard to determine if the economy will bounce back at the end of the first and most likely the second-quarter of 2021.

Some of the comments suggest that we may not see a solid recovery in the economy until after June. If investors mistime the start of the recovery, or if there are any problems with the distribution of the vaccines then the major indexes could sell-off substantially as investors will be forced to reevaluate current valuations and forecasts.

It may take somewhere between 12 to 18 months to get back to normal, but that is only if the U.S. manages distribution of the vaccinations well. Any slip-offs could prolong the pandemic.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.