Biden Announces His Number Two. The Polls Have Yet to Respond, However.

The Latest

Democratic front runner Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris as his running mate. A Democratic victory would make Senator Kamala Harris the first vice president of Indian-Jamaican decent.

Biden and Harris will also be looking to buck the historical trend by delivering the first woman vice president.

Now that the much-awaited announcement has been made, the markets will now look ahead to the political debates.

Harris is scheduled to debate Vice President Mike Pence on 7^th October.

The Latest Polls

According to the latest FT’s interactive Calculator and polling data, which are as at 12^th August 2020, Joe Biden has 298 Electoral College votes. This is down from 308 Electoral College votes back on 5^th August and 318 votes in late June.

While Biden saw his total vote count fall, things were not much better for U.S President Trump.

Trump’s share of the Electoral College vote fell from 122 votes to 119 votes. The downward trend continued with Trump having had 128 Electoral College votes as at 29^th July and 132 votes in the week prior.

Looking more closely at the numbers, however, there was little change in the share of solid votes.

Joe Biden had 194 solid votes, unchanged from 5^th August, with Trump holding 80 solid votes, also unchanged.

Both saw a decline in leaning Electoral College votes, however.

Joe Biden saw leaning votes fall from 114 to 104, with Trump’s leaning votes decline from 42 to 39.

If we look at the key U.S states that tend to be election barometers:

Missouri continues to lean in favor of Trump and the Republicans, with Kansas also leaning in Trump’s favor.

For Biden, Illinois, New Mexico, and Oregon remain solid blues, with New Hampshire a solid blue. Michigan and Pennsylvania continued to lean in Biden’s favor.

A number of key states remain on the fence, however. These include Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina.

The Road Ahead

Economic data from the U.S continues to deliver positive news. It couldn’t come at a better time for a U.S President who has been trailing Biden since March.

Talks of further progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine is also positive for Trump. While labor market conditions show signs of improvement, there is a long way to go, however.

The key near-term remains an agreement on the COVID-19 stimulus package. Trump’s executive orders from the weekend wouldn’t have caused too much harm. Recent spin and improving economic conditions have failed, however, to narrow the gap for the U.S President.

The U.S Dollar

At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.18% to 93.81.

While there was no major market reaction to the announcement, we can expect the markets to begin considering chatter as we approach September.

It will ultimately boil down to who is the most economically friendly. Until now, few would have seen anyone be more business-friendly than U.S President Trump. So, Biden and Harris will need to change that…