Bitcoin – Are the Bulls Over Optimistic about the SEC and Bitcoin ETFs?

It’s back in the red for Bitcoin, with $6,600 once again a line in the sand for the bulls and the bears for the day.
Bob Mason
bitcoin eth

Bitcoin fell by 0.15% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 0.99% rise, to end the day at $6,663.

It was a bearish first half of the day, with Bitcoin pulling back from a start of a day intraday high $6,682 to an early afternoon intraday low $6,605, Bitcoin relying on support at $6,600 to steer clear of sub-$6,600 levels for the first time since 23rd September. The early morning high came up well short of $6,700 levels and the first major resistance level at $6,741.23 and more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, red across the cryptomarket board pinning the Bitcoin bulls back on the day.

The cryptomarket reversal through the day saw Bitcoin’s dominance creep back up to 52.3%, while the total market cap for the cryptomarket eased back to sub-$220bn.

On the news front, the IMF weighed in on the cryptomarket on Tuesday, warning of the rapid rise in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market and their possible adverse effects on the global financial system.

The IMF added that the continued cyber-attacks and security breaches posed an additional threat, particularly with blockchain tech being used to facilitate cross border transactions. While the comments from the IMF are nothing new, the timing is of greater significance, as the G20 and others look to introduce a regulatory framework for the cryptomarket. Regulators and governments are certainly mindful of the jurisdictional issues, the virtual nature of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies enabling investors to flout rules and regulations, which ultimately led to the G20 to explore and introduce a unified framework.

Judging by Bitcoin’s failure to recover losses for the year, Bitcoin having been sitting at $17,000 levels in early January, a lack of positive news, uncertainty over what lies ahead from a regulatory stand point and pending SEC decisions on the Bitcoin ETF applications are all working against Bitcoin and the broader market, in spite of the more bullish taking a more optimistic view on the SEC’s pending decisions.

With the likes of the IMF continuing to raise concerns over Bitcoin and the broader market and governments and regulators in key jurisdictions looking for greater oversight and control over the broader market, not to mention the fact the price manipulation does persist, albeit on a less obvious scale, can the SEC really go ahead and approve the ETFs or would another postponement be needed?

It does seem a little unrealistic to expect ETFs to be approved without a robust regulatory framework in place, though stranger things have happened and, the SEC may want to get ahead of the curve, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs giving the SEC a greater justification to take control of the U.S cryptomarket.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.86% to $6,605.4, with Bitcoin sliding from a start of a day morning high $6,663.1 to a morning low $6,584.1 before recovering to $6,600 levels, Bitcoin falling through the first major support level at $6,618 early in the day.

For the day ahead, a move back through the first major support level at $6,618 to $6,650 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $6,695 to bring $6,700 levels back into play, through Bitcoin would need to hold on to $6,600 levels through the remainder of the morning to support an afternoon recovery.

Failure to hold onto $6,600 levels through the morning and move back through the first major resistance level could see Bitcoin pullback to $6,500 levels to bring the day’s second major support level at $6,573 into play before any recovery, Bitcoin’s failure to move back through to $6,700 levels on Tuesday weighing early on in the day.

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