Brexit and Canadian Elections Put the Pound and Loonie in Focus

With economic data on the light side, geopolitics takes center stage once more. Will Trudeau still be in power by morning?
Bob Mason

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

Japan’s September trade data had limited influence in the early part of the day.

For the Japanese Yen

Japan’s trade balance jumped from a ¥143.5bn deficit to a ¥123.0bn surplus in September. Economists had forecast a surplus of  ¥54.0bn.

According to figures released by the  Ministry of Finance,

  • Imports fell by 1.5% in September, year-on-year, which was better than a forecasted 2.8% fall. In August, imports had fallen by 11.9%.
  • Exports declined by 5.2%, year-on-year, which was worse than a forecasted 4% fall. Exports had fallen by 8.2% in August.
  • By country, exports to China fell by a further 6.7%, with exports to North America falling by 7.8%. Exports to Western Europe rose by 3.4%, in spite of a 1.5% fall in exports to Germany and a 13.6% slide in exports to the UK.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.406 to ¥108.418 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥108.49 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.04% to $0.6859, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.25% to $0.6398.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany’s wholesale inflation figures for September are due out later this morning.

We can expect the EUR to react to weaker than forecasted numbers. Economists have forecast a 0.1% decline following a 0.5% fall in August.

Outside of the numbers, we can expect the EUR to come under pressure as the markets react to the UK Parliament’s failure to vote through the Brexit deal.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.09% to $1.1157.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction on the day.

The Pound will likely struggle through the day following the weekend Parliamentary vote against Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.

Through the day, chatter from Parliament will influence. While an extension request has been made, talk of referendums and general elections will dictate the near-term outlook for the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.59% to $1.2908.

Across the Pond

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. with no material stats due out of the U.S to provide direction.

A pickup in geopolitical risk provided support for the Greenback in the early part of the day, as Britain heads for yet another Brexit delay.

From the U.S, trade talk and any impeachment chatter will also influence on the day.

The Dollar Spot Index was up 0.08% to 97.359 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction for the Loonie.

A lack of stats leaves the Loonie in the hands of the Canadian election that takes place today. With the polls showing the Liberal Party and Conservative Party neck and neck, a Trudeau loss is not out of the question….

The Loonie was down by 0.05% at C$1.3134, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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