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Bob Mason

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The UK Parliament suspension has begun and MPs won’t be returning until the Queen’s speech on 14th October.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson would have been hoping for time to have run out for the Pro-Remainers. Alas not, the Queen approved legislation preventing a no-deal departure from the EU, just days after having approved a lawful suspension of Parliament.

Perhaps fortunately for the Pro-Remainers, the Court of Session decided not to call the Queen’s approval to suspend Parliament unlawful. The embarrassment may have given the Queen reason to pause on any further decisions…

So, with Johnson seeing his motion for a 15th October General Election rejected for the 2nd time, chaos shrouds British politics.

Of significant note is the decision by the Opposition Party to hold back from supporting a motion for a snap election. Of greater significance is the timing. The Tories being in disarray…

Brexit continues to prise apart the inner sanctums of Parliament and it’s unlikely to get any better…


The Pound

Interestingly, in spite of the significant uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the UK economy has managed to avoid a meltdown.

Granted, the economy stagnated in the 2nd quarter, but it didn’t contract. Throw in a sharp pickup in wage growth and fall in the unemployment rate and the optics look good.

The reality is, however, that the world’s 7th largest economy is unlikely to be going anywhere fast.

Many will have hoped that the entire Brexit saga would have been addressed by 31st October. Unless Boris Johnson pulls a rabbit out of the hat, the slow death appears set to continue.

Amidst all the chaos, the opposition Party Leader has become a pro-remainer and yet, in spite of claims that a 2nd EU Referendum would deliver a remain outcome, continues to shy away from a snap election.

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.23441.

What Lies Ahead?

The British Prime Minister has until 19th October to negotiate a deal with the EU that needs to find favor from both sides of the Brexit fence.

A tall order considering the 5-weeks, bringing into question whether Johnson will stand by his word on refusing to ask for another extension.

In the days ahead, with MPs silenced, the Brexiteers will be hard at work in a bid to hold back from calling an extension.

A 15th October election would have addressed Brexit once and for all. The electorate would have had an opportunity to vote for Johnson and the Brexiteers or the opposition.

Now there remains a glimmer of hope for the Brexiteers. For an opposition party flouting the Tory Party’s failure at democracy, the bare bones of it suggest quite the opposite.

If Johnson fails to find a legal loophole to deliver a no-deal Brexit, defections in the rank suggest a 2nd referendum could be on the cards.

And, what if, Britain once more votes in favor of leaving the EU?

Before we get carried away…

Let’s consider the possibility that Johnson has a new deal in place on 17th October.

EU leaders will meet just 2-days prior to the 19th October Pro-Remainer imposed deadline.

Would MP’s go against a renegotiated agreement simply to bring down the British Prime Minister?

We’ve seen over the last 2-years that there is no solution that pleases all.  For Johnson, a legal loophole and a new deal. That would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

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