Will Solana Recover in October or Slide Toward $175?

Solana (SOL) has declined 18.80% two weeks after hitting a multimonth high above $250. Will it keep falling in October or recover? Let’s examine.

Bear Flag Puts $175 SOL Price on Table

Solana is flashing a classic bearish continuation pattern after its September sell-off.

The token has slipped nearly 19% from its peak near $252, forming what looks like a bear flag on the 4-hour chart. This setup, defined by a sharp drop followed by a brief upward-sloping consolidation, typically precedes another leg lower.

At present, SOL trades around $206, sitting just below its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $210 and slightly below its 200-period EMA at $213.

The breakdown of this flag pattern risks accelerating losses toward the flagpole’s measured target near $175, a level that also coincides with horizontal support from mid-August.

Momentum indicators echo this caution. The relative strength index (RSI) hovers near 47, neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for fresh downside.

What Could Change This Bearish View?

The daily chart highlights a rising wedge pattern that typically resolves to the downside.

Yet, Solana has not broken down decisively. In fact, the token recently reclaimed the wedge’s lower trendline as support, a sign that sellers may be losing grip.

This development raises the odds of a sideways-to-upward consolidation in October, with price potentially gravitating toward the wedge’s apex near $235.

Holding above the 50-day EMA at $208 would further bolster this constructive scenario, suggesting that the recent dip may have been a false breakdown.

Solana Fundamentals Skewed Toward Bulls

Beyond chart setups, fundamentals may play a decisive role in Solana’s October trajectory. Optimism is building around the potential approval of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Analysts suggest decisions could come as soon as Oct. 10 for Grayscale and Oct. 16 for Bitwise and 21Shares.

Honestly the odds are really 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their “clock” meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready. https://t.co/5JtfTm82Wi

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 29, 2025

Signs of accumulation further support the bullish case. Roughly 3 million SOL were withdrawn from exchanges recently, indicating that investors may be positioning for longer-term exposure rather than short-term trading.

At the same time, Solana is seeing record institutional inflows, with $291 million entering Solana-linked funds in the past week, outpacing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major assets.

These inflows align with Solana’s rapid growth as a Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization hub, where issuance ballooned from $5 billion in 2022 to over $29 billion by September 2025.

That includes nearly $700 million in RWAs and more than $13.5 billion in stablecoins settled on its network.

If ETF approvals and institutional flows continue to gather momentum, fundamentals could offset technical headwinds and help Solana reclaim higher levels sooner than skeptics expect.